FANTASY FOOTBALL: I WANT TO BE LIKE ARIAN (#1 Pick)

FANTASY FOOTBALL:

I WANT TO BE LIKE ARIAN (#1 Pick)

 

By Muntradamus

 

BEAST DOME NATION.

The VIP Packages are coming out tonight.  To promote this special day, Arian Foster is named as the BEAST DOME cover RB of this season.  Here is why when you have the #1 pick, you have to take Arian Foster.

 

BEAST VIP

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FANTASY FOOTBALL:

I WANT TO BE LIKE ARIAN (#1 Pick)


Last season was a disaster for Texans fans.  A team that had a good shot to win the Superbowl ended up finishing the season 2-14.  The first red flag was Arian Foster coming into the season still not 100% from his Calf Injury.  His slow start was very evident and he was never able to stay 100% healthy all season with hamstring and back issues eventually forcing him to call it quits early.  Arian totaled only 8 games, and he was only himself for about one of them.

 

ARIAN FOSTER STATS

ArianFoster2

The Texans defense was plagued with injuries, none bigger than the loss of Middle Linebacker Brian Cushing.  The defense crumbled around his loss.

On offense, the Texans benched Matt Schaub after a slow start for Case Keenum.  Only to find out that Schaub really was not the problem for this Football Team.

That is how the Texans finished the season 2-14.

 

This season, things are different for the Texans Offense.  

First is the head coach Bill O’Brien.  O’Brien was the Offensive Coordinator for Tom Brady when they lost  the 2011 Superbowl.  The game when Welker dropped a catch he would make 9/10 times in the late 4th Quarter. O’Brien knows how to move the ball down the field and win Football games.  Exactly what you want for your Fantasy RB.

Ryan Fitzpatrick at QB gives them a very safe Kurt Warner type QB who can move the ball down the field consistently.  If Andre Johnson stays in Houston, look for him to have one of his best seasons in the NFL putting up vintage Torry Holt numbers.  DeAndre Hopkins will also be a HUGE target for Fitzpatrick and will easily be a player that takes his game to the low-end WR #2 level this season.  Potentially the next Alshon Jeffery of the NFL.

Add in the dynamic pass catching/hard running ‘BEAST DOME RB BEAST OF THE YEAR‘ Arian Foster.  You have yourself the very next Marshall Faulk.

 

MARSHALL FAULK STATS

 

Faulk1

 

TEXANS DEFENSE

Texans defense was a disaster last season.  Arguably the #1 Defense in Fantasy football last season on Draft Day ended up being in the same bubble as the Oakland Raiders and Jacksonville Jaguars.

TexansD

 

The Texans this season made some big upgrades on defense.

 

First upgrade

is the Texans hired Romeo Cronnell to be the Defensive Coordinator.  Romeo made his living as the Defensive Coordinator for the Superbowl winning Patriots back in the day.  He was later a head coach for the Browns, only to find that he was better as a Defensive Coordinator.

 

Second Upgrade

is #1 Pick Jadeveon Clowney.  Remember when Mario Williams made a big impact for the Texans Defense?  Clowney will duplicate that success and bring 10x more fire power.  His freakish athleticism and power will make him unstoppable when bringing pressure or chasing down a RB.

 

Third Upgrade

is Chris Clemons the safety from the Dolphins.  Clemons makes the Texans defense immediately smarter and more efficient.  This guy reads the field with the best of them, and he will make that Texans defense much more dynamic.

 

TEXANS SCHEDULE

PROJECTED RECORD (12-4)

ArianFoster Schedule
Try not to smile too much when looking at this Juicy schedule.  Especially when you compare it to the schedule “Expert” Consensus #1 Pick Jamaal Charles is facing.

JAMAAL CHARLES SCHEDULE

Look at that playoff schedule for Arian leading up to Week 13 as well.  I see you drooling over there.

CONCLUSION

If the Texans are going to win Football games.  Arian Foster is going to have a HUGE season.  He is the Work Horse of this Football team, and should easily finish in the Top 3 of most touches each week.  Resembling Marshall Faulk from ‘The Greatest Show on Turf.’

 

Last season Arian Foster came into the season with a bad knee, and Ben Tate was a threat to take carries all season.

THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN TATE

This season Arian Foster is 100% healthy and will only see Andre Brown (ANDRE THE GIANT) on the field when Arian needs a breather.  Arian Foster is one of the most Explosive Fantasy Football Players of this generation and has led many to Fantasy Football Championships.

It is a shame that nobody else in the Fantasy Football world is remembering that.  This reminds me exactly of Albert Pujols coming into this season.

MUNTRADAMUS MLB ALL-STAR TEAM

ArianFosterFP

*MY FANTASYPROs” RANKINGS WILL BE RELEASED AT THE DEADLINE*

 

 

MUNTRADAMUS PREDICTION

ARIAN FOSTER – RB – HOU (2014)

2150 TOTAL YARDS. 23 TDs

MUNTRADAMUS RB RANKING #1

 

 

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53 comments

  • dubya July 17, 2014   Reply →

    Couple of things. First, I don’t think you can compare Fitzpartrick to HOF Warner, who made 3 superbowl appearances, thanks largely to his gifts as a passer. Fitz has his moments, sure, but how have the Bills and Titans fared under him? No offensive stars on those offences during his time there. Rest of your analysis is good, but I’d suggest to your readers to do their best to trade out of a high draft pick in order to take advantage of Foster’s ADP. Aim to be at the back end of the first as all of the other backs come off the board and then either nab him then, or what until the early second and be armed with two top performers like Megatron, Jimmy or even Peyton. Advocating spending the #1 overall pick (which the RB1 surely is) on a guy who can be had much later, comes with its own risks.

    • Muntradamus July 17, 2014   Reply →

      I agree. Fitzpatrick to Warner is BOLD. I originally had Rich Gannon, but wanted to drill in the similarity of Foster to Marshall Faulk during his prime. If Fitzpatrick had Torry Holt/Isaac Bruce/Anquan Boldin/Larry Fitzgerald throughout his career, Fitzpatrick would have made a bigger name for himself. Kurt Warner probably not, but Fitzpatrick will manage this team very well.

      As far as your second statment. If you cannot trade down your Top 5 pick, and you have to spend it on Arian. Spend it on Arian. If you do not draft him there, you will never see him again.

  • shazjc872 July 17, 2014   Reply →

    does Foster’s value hinge on Andre Johnson staying with the Texans?

    bold analysis, glad you haven’t shied away from it, very useful perspective… keep it up!

    • Muntradamus July 17, 2014   Reply →

      Andre Johnson staying in Houston is very important for this to come true.

      Even if Andre Johnson is gone, look for DeAndre Hopkins to make a HUGE step forward and still hold most of this to be true.

      Only twice did DeAndre Hopkins see over 10 targets in a game. 1 of those games he went for 7 catches/113 Yards/1 TD and was talked about on every NFL station after that performance. He has Alshon Jeffery written all over him, and if Andre Johnson is gone. He will be Alshon Jeffery.

  • C Spit July 17, 2014   Reply →

    Man Munt if I take Foster and he doesnt produce……

  • Roto July 17, 2014   Reply →

    Hi Munt,

    Excellent insight as always, are the VIP packages coming out tonight ?

  • Sappy July 18, 2014   Reply →

    Sup Munt,

    Thanks for the free articles already, I can’t wait for football season to be back!

    Just one quick question? Would you trade up from 10th overall pick to solidify grabbing Arian or do you think he drops low? Originally I thought I could nab him but recent ADPs have him going higher.

    Stoked for VIP too, I’m hooked from last year.

    • C Spit July 18, 2014   Reply →

      I can’t see him going higher than that unless he kills it in preseason. You know people are gonna try to grab Peyton and Rodgers early, along with Megatron and the top RBs.

  • Shahbaz July 18, 2014   Reply →

    Wow, awesome analysis, I had pegged Foster as a major bounce back candidate, but not a #1 overall pick. I mean 23 TD’s, damn!! I play in a league, like many others, where the draft pick is chosen randomly just 30 min before the online draft. I am hoping for a late pick now. I think Foster has a 2nd round ADP in both ESPN and Yahoo. It’s gonna take balls to pick him with a top 5 overall pick that’s for sure.

  • Gridiron Samurai July 18, 2014   Reply →

    Thanks again Munt! Your insight is invaluable as always!

  • Anonymous Cuz I Love Munt's Stuff July 19, 2014   Reply →

    I must say, Munt, your TD projections always do seem a BIT over optimistic, but interesting insight as usual.

    Not sure if I trust foster to stay healthy or efficient as hes gone steadily downhill in both areas the last 2-3 years in a row.

  • dubya July 20, 2014   Reply →

    Would be interested to see how would you value him in a dynasty setting.

    • dubya July 20, 2014   Reply →

      Going to put your theory to the test – he finishes as a top 5 RB I’ll buy your VIP package next year for sure…how’s that sound?

      • Ben July 20, 2014   Reply →

        Why are you doubting this guy? This is the guy who told me to get jordy nelson in the 6Th round…he was a top 2 wr before arod went down. This is the same guy who said to avoid ray rice, cj spiller AT ALL costs. , to take shady mccoy and avoid david wilson, This is the guy who said to take ANQUAN boldin over fitzgerald…guessed who produced more last year? Finally, the guy who told me to take julius thomas as a last round pick in my 14 team league. If u doubt this guy, you have issues…VIP is worth every penny.

      • Sappy July 20, 2014   Reply →

        Also Munt is the same guy who can pick out guys Alshon Jeffery weeks before everyone else does. One of the biggest waiver wire pickups of the season last year. And that’s not it, I could go on for hours on how much he personally helped manage my team with Skype and spreecasts. Ever since I started following his advice and info, I’ve made the playoffs 6 of 6 times for multiple sports. The results are always there, you can’t go wrong with VIP.

  • 'nnonymous July 20, 2014   Reply →

    dude check out munt’s past predictions lol… just last years rankings alone.

    no1 had peyton manning #1 besides munt. Munt had McCoy higher than every1 else… desean jackson higher than every1… david wilson VERY low… lower than every1…. just some that come to mind.

  • dubya July 21, 2014   Reply →

    So, what flavour is the kool-aid that comes with the VIP package? Powerful stuff. Look, I’m not doubting Munt – I generate my own opinions and those are based off of synthesizing a lot of information – you guys should give it a shot some time. He has some big hits, and the occasional failures too (Ball??). But if I just left it to one site/analyst, that would rob me of the enjoyment of reading up on this and formulating my own decisions. I was skeptical about Foster’s return to form for much of the summer, but much of the initial chat has been very positive. Holding Munt’s overall opinion in hugh regard, I can’t dismiss when he calls Foster out as RB1. If it pays off, as will I. If it doesn’t…well I obviously won’t be the only one licking my wounds. Question remains Munt – Foster in a dynasty…he’s 28 in August – that gives him maybe 3 years of RB1 production if he stays healthy.

    • Muntradamus July 21, 2014   Reply →

      1. You cannot blame me for Montee Ball and his fumbling issues last season. Look at him now. Look at him now. Top 5 RB on FantasyPros and debatable 1st round pick.

      He did not even do anything and every expert is saying exactly what I said last season. He should of beat out Knowshon Moreno last year, the job was his. But he fumbled it away. My angle on the situation was 100% as Knowshon Moreno finished as the #5 RB. Everyone is just copying my angle that I saw 1 year before everyone else.

      2. 3 Years of RB1 production. That is 3 years of winning your Fantasy Football Championship. The Broncos signed Peyton Manning a couple years ago to be a superbowl contender with no intention of a few years at most. Does not matter how many years are left for any player. Always try to win now.

    • Maturin July 27, 2014   Reply →

      “You guys should give it a try sometime”

      I’m a long time player who just happens to believe that Munt give a great perspective on things that are slightly different than me. I never given money to a site or an expert ever in my 8 years playing fantasy.
      I dig the DIY ethos & I’d support this site that style a million times before espn, yahoo, cbs, even 4for4 dues.
      I’m down for VIP this year because it’s a way to to see a different perspective & sharpen up possibly.
      I’ll challenge you to DFS FF every week on the yr site of choice, no Munt involved, I’m just VIP Basic.

  • skmetallica July 21, 2014   Reply →

    Munt is light years ahead of the “mainstream” fantasy analysts. I am just hoping I get an early enough pick in the first round where I can get Foster no question.

  • dubya July 22, 2014   Reply →

    I can’t blame you for his fumbling issues, but I can blame you for being wrong about Ball being ready to step into an NFL offence on day 1. As an analyst does it matter how you’re wrong, or why (barring injury)? No, it merely matters whether you’re right or wrong, and that one particular piece of advice was wrong. You were right in many, many other respects, so if someone followed your advice they’d be well ahead of the curve, for sure. If you’re going to toast your success at least man up and accept when you’re wrong. You’re a solid analyst, Munt, nobody can dispute that. One of the best, for sure. But even you have to admit that even some of the Beast’s picks will turn out to be Busts.

    • dubya July 22, 2014   Reply →

      And goddam, fix this page’s background colour already. This would definitely keep me from being a VIP – can’t handle more than 3 minutes at a time without needing flush my eyes with saline.

      • dallasdavek July 22, 2014   Reply →

        Really??

        The easiest way for you to solve this is just spout your proclaimed fantasy knowledge on these other so called sites you visit.

        Opinions are great as long as they contribute….now you just looking for attention.

    • Muntradamus July 22, 2014   Reply →

      Here is my question for you.

      If you can’t blame me for his fumbling issues. Then how can you blame me for being wrong.

      The reason Montee was “wrong” in 2013 was because of his fumbling issues. Montee had a chance to score the teams first rushing TD of the season against the Giants in Week 2. On the 6 Yard line he gets the ball, he fumbles.

      Knowshon comes in off the bench later in the game. Goes untouched on two TD runs, and the rest is history.

      You can say I was not right, because of the fumbling. But to say I was wrong is another issue. I had the angle correct on Montee, the Broncos wanted him to win the job, he was a TD machine setting records at Wisconsin. But he chocked when it counted.

      The fact he was pretty much garbage for the entire 2013 season and is still a 1st Round Pick in 2014 says a lot.

      • dubya July 23, 2014   Reply →

        I can’t blame you for that, because only one guy gets the blame for fumbling – Montee. But how do you feel that you’re completely innocent here? I think we can all ask that you accept responsibility for incorrect prognostications, save for anything that is injury related. Fumbling and failing to pickup blitzes are performance related issues for a running back – I think anyone would agree there. Your suggestion to pick him with a second round pick (I think) means that you believed he would hold onto his job, and the ball. You said he would perform. He didn’t. End of story. It doesn’t matter what the reason is. If he’s not on the field for any reason other than an injury, and you suggested he would be, then, my friend, you were wrong about how well he would do.

        • Muntradamus July 23, 2014   Reply →

          It was not a 2nd Round Pick.

          He was suggested to be a 4th Round Pick to take as your #3 RB. Thats what the strategy was and always has been for VIPs in 2013. Anyone who reads this far down in the comments will back this up.

          Did it not work out, sure. But my analysis and prediction of the Denver RB situation came true. Look at Knowshon Moreno now, he may not even be the starting RB of the Dolphins. The Job was Montee’s and his performance lost him the job. Never fumbled in college. Never fumbled in the preseason.

          Fantasy Football man. You can’t ask for anything more than what I did last year. As a #3 RB, it was worth the risk.

          • dallasdavek July 23, 2014  

            I drafted Ball in the 3rd Round as my RB#4, Reggie Bush was my RB#3 as a later Round pick. Team ended up taking the Season at 11-3 but losing in the playoffs. Gronk and Romo had a little bit more to do with the playoffs than Ball.

            Murray was my RB2… had to do it.

            Julius Thomas was the steal of the draft, last guy drafted.

          • dubya July 23, 2014  

            Never doubted your analysis Munt. Have praised that all along. Merely said be accountable if one of your picks doesn’t turn out the way you lead your army of followers to believe (like by saying, my bad, instead of, not my fault). Ok – time to praise your Cam analysis, lol.

        • maturin July 26, 2014   Reply →

          I have to say the preseason call on Montee is pretty much the main reason i signed up for VIP the other day.
          I liked the bold take, and agreed the value opportunity with a low ADP & took him after Lynch & R.Bush as a flex.
          He was the most risk reward player in my draft as he was a fourth round pick, so i simply drafted Moreno in something like round 11 right before I grabbed Orange Julius. Guess how my season went…

  • Fiction July 22, 2014   Reply →

    What do you think of Charles vs Foster long term, in dynasty? If you are right about both, then Foster’s value is as low as it will go and Charles is as high as it will ever be.

    I also don’t think a lot of people realize Charles is actual OLDER than Foster so value play there.

    Sell Charles and buy Foster?

    • Muntradamus July 22, 2014   Reply →

      Definitely sell Charles and Buy Foster.

      Kansas City Chiefs will not have the season they had last year. Hard to see the team winning more than 8 games. Even long-term.

      • dallasdavek July 23, 2014   Reply →

        Already started the Foster nay saying around the office….gotta work the league. New Coach…declined last year etc…. Won’t know the draft order for awhile but it’s never to early to start the propaganda.

        Great stuff…thanks

  • Brad July 23, 2014   Reply →

    Really love this pick a lot Munt. I get a really good gut feeling when thinking about Foster next season. It all makes sense, he should have a monstrous year. The only thing that will hold him back is injury and hopefully having the past 8 months off will have his body refreshed and stronger than ever.

  • Ryan July 26, 2014   Reply →

    Hey Munt, ssw the post on this so thought I’d throw out a ? for you. I play in a 12 team half-point PPR keeper league. Right now I have the option to keep Graham in the 6th round and own the #2 pick this year. I’ve felt the same way about Foster and thinking he’s gonna have a bounce back season, but to spend a #2 pick on him, at this point, seems downright crazy. Should I try to trade down the in draft, passing on guys like McCoy or Forte? Or should I roll with one of those two hoping he’ll come back to me at 23? Most of the live mocks I’ve done have him going 15-25, but all the computer sims having him going 5-10. Thanks

  • skmetallica July 29, 2014   Reply →

    Apparently someone at ESPN is on to Munt’s Foster theory:

    http://espn.go.com/fantasy/football/story/_/page/nfldk2k14arianfoster/arian-foster-worth-risk-fantasy-football-drafts

    Alot of those points pretty much echo what Munt has already said…

  • TSmith July 30, 2014   Reply →

    Not quite sure I can get on board with Foster as the #1 overall RB…But I do think he has more potential than where many of the experts are ranking him.

    I’m not worried about Foster’s back…It’s his hammies that worry me. Seems like it’s been an ongoing problem for him and now word has popped up his hamstrings are an issue again in camp.

    Maybe I’m just being cautious because I took Foster early last year despite the warning signs and he burned me pretty good.

    He does have a nice schedule though and Fitzpatrick should help the offense move the ball with 2 sold WR’s in Johnson & Hopkins. So IF Foster can stay healthy, he should have a solid year.

  • dangdno July 31, 2014   Reply →

    The recent “hamstring” issue for Foster…Is he really over his injury woes…when somebody is broken…

    • Muntradamus August 3, 2014   Reply →

      This is the comment I will be talking about Foster all preseason long.

      It is August 1st. Arian Foster is going to be touching the ball 350+ Times this season. I’m sure if they had a Week 5 Game against the Jaguars, Arian Foster would be suiting up and likely the Top RB ranked on FantasyPros.

      Arian The Barbarian is going to be fine. No reason to panic, he will probably slip later in your draft with this news. Blessing in disguise.

      • Bigbobbyloco August 20, 2014   Reply →

        I drafted 9th in a 12 team league, I was able to take Monte Ball & DeMarco Murray before grabbing Foster in the 3rd. Nobody wanted him because of his injury concerns. Our league is not cheap and very competitive, since 2006. The last 3 years I have placed 2nd, 1st and 3rd with Munt’s help. Hopefully I regain the Crown again this year.
        I paid for VIP and received the password asap ( thanks Munt ), but now the password is not working. I have yet to receive a new one. Any reason why?

        Peace, Bigbobbyloco

  • John August 11, 2014   Reply →

    Hey guys, I have a keeper question. ESPN standard scoring no PPR. 12 teams, snake draft and I draft 3rd then 22nd. I can keep 3 and they cost me the pick I drafted them last year (the number to the right). I really want to keep Harvin, Bell and Mathews, but I don’t think there will be any running backs to draft in the 1st with everyone keeping theirs. Should I keep Foster, Bell and Harvin instead or any other ideas? Thanks!
    Percy Harvin Sea – WR – Round 16 Pick 190
    Kendall Wright Ten – WR – Round 15 Pick
    Le’Veon Bell Pit – RB – Round 7 Pick 75
    Ryan Mathews SD – RB – Round 8 Pick 94
    DeSean Jackson Was – WR – Round 6 Pick 70
    Randall Cobb GB – WR – Round 4 Pick 46
    Arian Foster Hou – RB – Round 1 Pick 3
    Frank Gore SF – RB – Round 3 Pick 27
    Julio Jones Atl – WR – Round 2 Pick 22
    Matthew Stafford Det – QB – Round 4 Pick 46
    Reggie Wayne Ind – WR – Round 4 Pick 46
    Trent Richardson Ind – RB – Round 1 Pick 3
    Cecil Shorts III Jax – WR – Round 6 Pick 70
    Rob Gronkowski NE – TE – Round 3 Pick 27

  • Bigbobbyloco August 20, 2014   Reply →

    Staying healthy is a skill set. Hopefully Foster can manage. Charles is a Beast, best thing since Barry Sanders. Trent Richardson is a bum, the rusty old Bradshaw will probably out perform him. Just my opinion.

  • Facts over speculation August 25, 2014   Reply →

    Anonymous Cuz I Love Munt’s Stuff says:
    “Not sure if I trust foster to stay healthy or efficient as hes gone steadily downhill in both areas the last 2-3 years in a row.”
    Munt replies:
    “Last season the Texans were a 2-14 team, and Arian was injured. Any players numbers will go down in that situation.”
    Heres some facts that were never addressed
    YPC : Arian Foster ypc : 2010 – 4.9, 2011 – 4.4, 2012 – 4.1. Sure in limited time last yr his YPC was 4.5 but the decline is still there.
    WORKLOAD : 2010 – 393 touches, 2011 – 390 touches in just 15 GP (playoffs incl) 2012 – 460 touches!! (playoffs included) That kind of workload is a death knell for any RB in the NFL.
    TEAM CONTEXT : Houstons O line was arguably the best run blocking line in the NFL in 2010. It has gotten worse each consecutive season. You are also giving Fitzpatrick and O’Brien WAAAY too much credit. Fitzpatrick is a mediocre QB at best. Comparing him to Kurt Warner is laughable. Hou hardly upgraded @ QB. As for O’Brien he worked with Tom Brady and Bill Bellichek… nuff said. Easy sched? There’s so much turnover in the NFL. In the last 2 years alone the worst team in the NFL both (2-14) went on to post 10+ wins and make the playoffs the next yr (ironically this bodes well for the 2-14 Texans this year). In the 2010 season Hou had the hardest SOS in the NFL. They only won 6 games and Foster put up 2200 YFS and 18 total TD’s on 4.9 YPC. In 2012 they were tied for the 3rd easiest SOS. They won 12 games and Foster put up 1650 YFS and 17 total TD’s on 4.1 YPC. Foolish to use the schedule as a large factor in predicting anything especially fantasy production b/c players can still produce great #’s on bad teams and vice versa. Agree the D will be better but Fosters used heavily in the passing game so playing from behind didn’t hurt his fantasy production that much anyways. Look I like Foster but you can’t just say easy sched + better defense + Faulk like role = historic NFL season b/c thats what you’re forecasting here. 2150 yfs + 23 TDs would go down as one of the greatest seasons ever especially for a player w declining production and multiple injury red flags. Lets say Foster stays healthy all season and the offense is potent (two things I’m not necessarily banking on) Realistic projection : 285 carries 1280 yards 11 TD’s 60 receptions 600 yards 2 TD’s. Thats best case scenario for me. That would be a phenomenal season dont get me wrong but if you draft Foster banking on 2150 YFS and 23 TD’s prepare to be dissappointed.

    • Muntradamus August 25, 2014   Reply →

      If you were a VIP, you would hear me address all those issues during the BEASTcast.

      You also have to realize. I watch more football than you. I know what I am talking about, and like the previous comments stated. Kurt Warner was more of a visual so you can see what I mean as far as Greatest Show on Turf. Fitzpatrick is definitely close to a Rich Gannon type of QB who has the best WRs he has ever worked with in his NFL Career.

      For you to look at numbers instead of team/injuries/etc makes you another one of the goat fantasy experts. Also you are leaving out the point because he was injured last season meant a lot less hits he took on his body. So yes all those touches are definitely something to note, but a season off from all those hits like last year. Keeps his body feeling fresh coming into 2014.

      • Facts over speculation August 25, 2014   Reply →

        Lol you watch more football than I do. Wow how do you know so much about me? No need to get defensive. So this Houston offense is going to resemble the greatest show on turf? I would argue that statement is equally as outrageous as comparing Fitzpatrick to Warner. I get that you backed off that statement. Now you’re comparing him to Rich Gannon. So what exactly makes Fitzpatrick “close to a Rich Gannon type?” With your superior football knowledge surely you can provide specific examples of why the two qbs are similar. Or is that just a blanket statement you’re making to fit the narrative? “For you to look at numbers instead of team/injuries/etc makes you another one of the goat fantasy experts.” I don’t even understand that statement. I clearly addressed BOTH the numbers and the team/injuries/etc. In fact in my post above TEAM CONTEXT is capitalized and makes up the majority of the post. Problem is you provide blanket statements but no specific evidence to back those statements up. I agreed the defense will be better. How specifically will Bill O’Brien help the team and consequently Foster though? How does a better team/easier schedule correlate to better fantasy #’s? I gave a very clear example of how Foster had his best season when the Texans had their hardest schedule/worst record in his tenure excluding last year. Thats just one of many examples I could give of why a better team/easier schedule doesn’t necessarily mean better fantasy numbers. GOAT fantasy managers? Never claimed anything of the sort. You’re the one who constantly talks about how you had Player A rated better than anyone else and bashes other ppls opinions. Finally I’m not leaving out the fact that Foster missed time last year and therefore took less hits. My position is simply that the benefits reaped from half a season off last year do not compensate for the detrimental effects of a 3 year run of averaging over 400 touches/season. Even when you factor in the half yr he missed vs a rb who played 16 games a season for the last 4 years Foster still likely endured more hits/physical wear and tear than any other rb over that same timespan.

        • Muntradamus August 25, 2014   Reply →

          Rich Gannon = Ryan Fitzpatrick

          Both are smart QBs who are good at making the 4-16 yard throws that consistently move the chains. Both have deep ball potential, but their game relies in their QB IQ more than their god gifted abilities. Ryan Fitzpatrick went to Harvard, he is a smart QB. What really reminds me of Fitzpatrick being similar to Gannon is his ability to read a defense, and then quickly run for 10-16 yards when he sees his opportunity. Fitzpatrick is not afraid to run the ball when the defense allows it. Fitzpatrick similar to Gannon is all about moving the chains.

          If you think Ryan Fitzpatrick is a bad QB. Look what he was able to make Stevie Johnson and Lee Evans. Look at what the Bills passing game has become last season compared to all the seasons Fitzpatrick was with the squad. 300 Yards passing from the Bills in 2013 for any game was a huge deal.

          TEAM CONTEXT for you is not deep enough. You talk about all these declining stats from Arian, but you don’t analyze why they were declining over the years. Last season had to deal with Case Keenum at QB. Defenses don’t need to worry about Case. Last two seasons Brian Cushing went down, Texans defense takes a step back, gives up more points, now opposing defenses can really force the issue of blitzing and trying to make whoever the Texans QB was to make poor decisions creating the O-Line to be weak and players to fall.

          Look at Matt Schaub compared to Fitzpatrick. Schaub was saved by Andre Johnson, so far with the Raiders. He looks average at best. The Texans offense will be much stronger with Fitzpatrick leading the charge.

          You ask how will Bill O’Brien help the team?
          The guy was the QB coach/OC for his days with Tom Brady. He worked with Brady day in and day out on the most explosive offense in the NFL he understands the system and how to move the ball. He was there when Brady threw for 50 TDs. He was there when Matt Cassel was low-end QB #1 material.

          The situation O’Brien is with now is very beneficial to his style of play. Fitzpatrick has crushed O’Brien before throwing for over 400 Yards one time, and O’Brien will make sure he utilizes Fitzpatrick to the best of his abilities. How this will help Arian is, you finally have an offense who can move the ball consistently and keep defenses off their toes.

          Arian Foster will be a BEAST this season. Even with the Numbers you predict, he is still the #1 RB in PPR Leagues.

          And your comment about you thinking you watch anywhere near the hours of football i watch. Do you watch every game at once in a giant room all screens going at once all day, then re-watch the games later, as well as watching all the preseason and keeping up with each team and go through the progressions of every player and not judging just based off of what you see this year… That is not even the start of my process when analyzing players.

          I appreciate the passion. But if you’re trying to go 1-on-1 about a player you can sit down whenever you choose because I can go all day.

          • Muntradamus August 26, 2014  

            *You posted a long response after this last reply. A response that is a waste of time for people to read.*

            All I will say is this. If you are a fantasy football genius. Go ahead and start your own site. If you watch Fitzpatrick and you don’t see a Rich Gannon comparison, then we obviously disagree with eachother. It’s fine if you don’t agree with me, my feelings aren’t hurt. Enjoy your fantasy football season and if Arian Foster is the #1 RB and Fitzpatrick leads the Texans to the playoffs then maybe you will agree.

  • fullertonbigmac September 2, 2014   Reply →

    I took Brees first in my draft as I play in a 6 pt. pass TD league and I think Brees will be huge this year due to his easy schedule. Coming back in the second round I picked Arian Foster over Montee Ball. Everyone in the draft room was giving me crap for a bad pick and I started to second guess myself. I let it get in my head and made some big mistakes in my draft. I took Reggie Bush over Giovanni Bernard and Alfred Morris over Andre Ellington. When I got home all I could find was negative crap about Foster and I started to feel like a made a big mistake. Reading this article makes me feel a lot better as I trust your wisdom and I agree that Foster will be better off with the Amish Cannon over Mr. Pick six who can’t even make it on the Raiders! What do you think of Bush and Morris this year? I also have Shane Vereen and Chris Johnson. I think Vereen could have a big year and Johnson could too. What do you think about my stable and who I should be starting? I would really appreciate your input!

    • fullertonbigmac September 6, 2014   Reply →

      Well, judging by your preseason rankings I have some hope that my team may be better than I initially thought. You had Foster, Bush, Morris, Vereen and Johnson all ranked higher than people I passed on. The only thing I did against your advice was draft Cordarelle as my WR2 in both my leagues. I really believe that Norvert will make him a star much like Josh Gordon hit fantasy gold in lowly Cleveland. I mean Cassel isn’t Joe Montana but he is a lot better than anyone in Cleveland lately and they have AP to open things up. I think he goes off this year…I hope!

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