FANTASY FOOTBALL NOT TOP 10 BREAKOUTS
NOT TOP 10 BREAKOUTS
BEAST DOME NATION.
FantasyPros decided to ask the Top 10 ‘Experts’ from last season who their Top Sleeper/Breakout Player is for 2019, and that they MUST DRAFT. Below each player is the Experts response in why they selected each player. I will be honest if I like the player, or not, but let us take a look. I did remove the “Experts” names for the sake that this is BEAST DOME and you came to BEAST DOME to read my take.
(SORRY FOR DOUBLE AUDIO)
Antonio Callaway (WR – CLE)
BELOW IS WHAT THE “EXPERT” SAYS ABOUT CALLAWAY
“Let’s say you’re a defensive coordinator facing the Browns. You need to devote two to Odell Beckham
, but you can’t completely abandon the box because you’ve got to worry about Nick Chubb
and his 5.2 yards per carry, and at some point, Kareem Hunt
as well. You also can’t forget about Jarvis Landry
or you’re giving up easy first downs all day, and on top of that, David Njoku
is probably a mismatch on your top coverage linebacker or safety. Who are you most likely to single cover? Callaway.
Once Freddie Kitchens took over, Callaway caught 23-of-35 (65.7%) from Baker Mayfield
for 350 yards (15.2 YPR, 10.0 YPT) and three touchdowns. Callaway’s average depth of target was 14.2 yards over that span, per AirYards.com, and Mayfield’s 107.6 deep passer rating on the year ranked seventh among 35 qualified QBs, per Pro Football Focus. Also working in Callaway’s favor is that year two is when wide receivers tend to make the biggest jump — and though he went in Round 4, he’s more of a Round 1-2 talent that dropped for off-field concerns. Callaway’s ADP is barely inside the top 200 overall and the top 80 WRs, but I have him as a top-150 pick and top-60 WR.”
Odell/Landry/Njoku. Those guys are all going to get their targets before Callaway every single game. Even throw in more targets for Chubb/Hunt and Duke Johnson if he plays. Callaway will get at max 5 targets a game, more likely than not that number will be around 3. The chances of the few not consistent enough volume from the Baker deep ball to Callaway is not enough to trust. At best Callaway is a WR4, but more likely than not because Callaway is so far down in the pecking order. He is nothing more than a desperate DFS Fantasy WR when you are trying to save money. If you count on Callaway, you will not win.
Larry Fitzgerald (WR – ARI)
“I don’t know about much higher, but I’m higher on Fitzgerald than the rest. Good ol’ boring Larry Fitz, heading into season No. 16, and coming off one of his worst campaigns to date. Fitz had 40 fewer catches and 49 fewer targets in 2018 compared to 2017, and he still finished as a top-30 WR in half-PPR settings. He’ll likely fall down draft boards in your average league, but Fitz will benefit from much better play at QB, and Kyler Murray
will learn to lean on the reliable Fitzgerald, who had three straight 100-catch seasons before last year. Arizona wants to run an up-tempo style of offense and I expect them to score a few more points with Kliff Kingsbury in town. This isn’t a sexy name by any means, but sometimes you just have to take what the draft gives you, and WR42 for Fitz is a steal. A couple sexier names include Sterling Shepard
, DaeSean Hamilton
, and Donte Moncrief.”
Not a horrible move taking Larry Fitzgerald around his 100 ADP. There are other WRs with a lot more upside, but if you want that steady PPR option, Larry Fitzgerald still has it. The new offense in Arizona will have upside, and the Cardinals will be losing a lot because they are forced to throw. You also know Kyler will want to trust his dependable veteran. However Fitzgerald is at the Keyshawn Johnson level of his career, 7 Catches 66 Yards is a solid line you will see more often than not. Will Fitzgerald get you those breakout WR1 games? Maybe once or twice, but he does offer solid WR3 upside.
Damien Williams (RB – KC)
“Since the dawn of time, running backs in Andy Reid’s offense produce top-tier stats in the PPR format and with Williams earning the Chiefs’ lead back role, the sixth year back with minimal tread on his tires will be an absolute stud in 2019. When taking over the KC RB1 role in 2018 (Weeks 13-16) he caught more passes, had more receiving yards, and more receiving touchdowns than Saquon Barkley
and had more rushing yards than Alvin Kamara
, while ranking fifth for all running backs in fantasy points. Even with a regression for Kansas City’s offense in 2019, Williams will still be one of the most consistent and productive running backs in fantasy.”
Obviously this “Expert” does not know how good Carlos Hyde is and just goes by stats. Yes the role looks good for Williams right now, but if you think Carlos Hyde is going to be a backup all season with a little change of pace role, you are crazy. Carlos Hyde is a better RB and if these two were on a new team and fighting for playing time, Carlos Hyde would no doubt 100% be the starting RB.
Mike Williams (WR – LAC)
“The stars are aligned for a healthy Williams to be a big fantasy contributor this season. While the Chargers didn’t give Williams many chances (66 targets) to make an impact in 2018, they did look for him in the end zone when they reached the 20-yard line. The loss of Tyrell Williams gives him the needed bump in opportunity to see several hundred more snaps this season (62% snap share to 79% snap share). That extra time on the field will produce 130+ targets and should result in mid-tier WR2 numbers fairly easily.”
ADP #59 is no joke. If you draft Mike Williams, you are putting yourself in a vulnerable situation where Mike Williams must perform like a WR2/WR3. I like how this “Expert” does not mention Hunter Henry at all, acting as if everything Tyrell lost will go straight to Mike Williams. In fact, Henry can take away a lot from Mike Williams, especially in the red zone. If Melvin Gordon sits out games, sure Mike Williams will definitely perform. However as long as Melvin Gordon is on the team.
Keenan Allen/Melvin Gordon/Hunter Henry/Mike Williams, is how Rivers will look to throw against defenses. The price tag is too high for Mike Williams, he is not ready to be considered an every week starter on any roster.
Geronimo Allison (WR – GB)
“Allison is my 66th-overall player and No. 29 receiver, yet he’s 109th overall and the 45th receiver in the consensus rankings. Allison, as the No. 2 receiver in Green Bay, was off to a hot start last year despite Aaron Rodgers
‘ bum knee, catching 19 passes for 289 yards, two touchdowns in his first four games. He tore his groin after that, but he and Rodgers are now healthy. Playing in one of the top offenses in the NFL, Allison could have a big season, especially with Randall Cobb
Obviously this guy stopped watching the Packers to close out the season. MVS/St. Brown/Moore/Kumerow are all threats to take away Playing time from Allison. The Packers have Davante Adams/Jimmy Graham and then whatever player steps up, is how the Packers passing game works. Allison did have some nice moments last year, but tearing his groin now facing stiff competition, Allison will not be on my draft radar.
Chris Carson (RB – SEA)
“Carson’s injury situation and fantasy owners’ infatuation with Penny have blinded many to how good Carson was as a pure runner. He finished the season with seven-straight weeks finishing inside the top 24 among running backs and was the only back in football with three straight weeks inside the top seven to end the year. He’s a bruising, punishing runner who will get 16-18 carries weekly, with plenty left over for Penny.”
ADP #48. You are devoting anywhere from a 3rd-5th Round Pick for a RB who is coming off knee surgery. The Seahawks are playing it ho-hum that it was just a cleanup and he expects to be ready for camp. However the Seahawks are saying time and time that they want Penny to be more involved. Penny has more 3rd down RB skills than Carson, and the Seahawks believe he can be a star with his multi-dimension overall game. All in all, if you draft Carson, you are wasting a very good draft pick on a guy who can kill your roster on any given week. He either falls out of gameflow, or he just does not play that often. Carson is only one year removed from ACL Surgery a year ago.
P.S. No expert ranked Carson higher than me last season. Great steal for the BEAST DOME Draft Guide in 2018, this year he is not part of the guide.
Tyrell Williams (WR – OAK)
“The Raiders lost ~350 targets from last season. Sure, Antonio Brown
will see a good chunk of those, but Williams didn’t sign a four-year, $44 million deal to block. The 27-year-old has a 1,000-yard season in his past and owns a career yards per catch mark of 16.3. He’ll provide splash plays for an offense that’s paper-thin beyond its top-two targets.”
Tyrell has a nice game, but Derek Carr has a problem, he forgot how to throw the ball deep. What makes Tyrell so great is his speed on deep balls and getting down field. Maybe things will change and Derek Carr does not return to captain checkdown, however that is always a risk. The good news for Tyrell is his ADP is #155, not a horrible late late round pick at all. As far as Tyrell turning into anything higher than a WR3 on your Fantasy Football roster. Pretty doubful, but he will have some nice games along the way. Not a bad late round pick, but not a guy who will win your Fantasy League for you.
Mark Ingram (RB – BAL)
“I’ve been harping on about this all offseason long, but Ingram’s ADP seems totally out of whack. While I anticipate the Ravens will throw the ball more this season in Lamar Jackson’s
second year, they basically ran a service academy offense last season and then proceeded to make Ingram a top-15 RB in the NFL in total contract value. And unlike Gus Edwards
, Ingram has pedigree as a receiver as well. Even if you’re bullish on Jackson as a passer, any offense with him under center will run the ball more than the typical NFL offense. I think this could be a huge campaign for Ingram behind a strong offensive line with a creative run designer in Greg Roman calling the plays.”
Mark Ingram does have nice potential, and he can be worth the high draft pick with his ADP of #41. However I would not draft him earlier than he is supposed to go, and I also may not even consider him in 12 Man Leagues or higher because it is more important you do the BEAST DOME DRAFT STRATEGY in the round he is supposed to go. 4th+. Mark Ingram is someone who can have a strong season with all his rushing attempts, but let us remember two things.
- The Ravens Defense lost CJ Mosely and Eric Weddle. That is two HUGE hits, which means their defense will be on the field a lot and losing games.
- Defenses are going to crowd the box and make sure Mark Ingram gets a lot of hits. Nobody will fear the passing game.
Mark Ingram will get his numbers, but it will not be easy and the Ravens are looking at a losing season.
Tevin Coleman (RB – SF)
“Coleman is currently being ranked as the RB30 in half-PPR leagues, but I think he should be a low-end RB2 as the probable lead back on an improved San Francisco offense. While Jerick McKinnon
and Matt Breida
will both be involved, Coleman is the healthiest of the bunch and has experience in Kyle Shanahan’s system from their time together in Atlanta. Overall, I think the 26-year-old can reach 1,000 total yards and double-digit touchdowns this season.”
McKinnon and Brieda will definitely be involved and there is no point in spending a valuable Draft Pick on Tevin Coleman (ADP #69) when there is no guarantee he will be the Red Zone RB, or even the 3rd Down RB. The RB situation seems very fluid, McKinnon is paid too much money to ride the bench, and Breida was one of the league leaders in rushing at a few points of last season. Drafting Tevin Coleman is a waste of a draft pick, the opportunity will not be there for enough volume, 15+ Carries would be considered a ton of usage, he will likely see around 10 touches a game.
Amari Cooper (WR – DAL)
“I have Cooper as my seventh-ranked wide receiver and 20th overall. Cooper will benefit from an entire season with Dallas and should see an increase in targets per game in the seven-to-10 range. Cooper finished as the eighth-best wide receiver in half-PPR formats last season during Weeks 9-17, his nine games with Dallas. 1,500+ receiving yards is possible in 2019.”
Wow what EXPERT analysis! Recite his stats from last season and say he can do it again! Amazing!
How bout you look deeper into his schedule and realize he faces every top Cornerback in the league from Week 6 to the end of the year. Life will not be easy for Amari who will see constant double teams. You are using a 3rd/4th Round pick on the stud WR, but there is way too much bust potential when you go through that schedule.
You literally cannot start Cooper in the Fantasy Playoffs, @Chicago Night time in December, vs. Rams amazing secondary, then Jalen Mills. You are done. There is a reason why Amari Cooper is the Coverman of the Bust Draft Strategy.
Like!! Really appreciate you sharing this blog post.Really thank you! Keep writing.