FANTASY BASEBALL WANNA PARLAY HR OF THE DAY AARON JUDGE
FANTASY BASEBALL WANNA PARLAY HR OF THE DAY AARON JUDGE
By Muntradamus & Sports Prophet AI
BEAST DOME NATION.
Am I on a cold streak? First time in 5 players, I did not pick a HR correct as Lourdes drilled a RBI single, but that is all. While I could take another swing, I decided to have Sports Prophet AI make a pick. While the name may be obvious, Aaron Judge has not a hit a HR since July 23rd, so any HR call out of the blue is a good one before the power really comes alive for the Judge. Let us not forget Aaron Judge was a BEAST DOME LEGEND call, ranking him higher than any Expert his breakout Rookie Season.
HERE IS SPORTS PROPHET AI saying why Judge will hit a HR on Sunday.
1. Matchup Advantage vs. Jason Alexander
Jason Alexander is a right-handed pitcher who relies heavily on sinkers and sliders, with a pitch-to-contact profile rather than overpowering stuff. His fastball velocity hovers in the low 90s, and he lacks a true wipeout pitch to neutralize elite right-handed power hitters. Historically, Judge thrives against this style of pitcher—low-strikeout arms who live in the zone. If Alexander’s sinker leaks up, Judge can launch it 450+ feet.
Judge’s expected slugging against sinkers from righties is among the best in baseball, and with Alexander’s inability to consistently miss bats, the odds of Judge getting a hittable pitch in the first couple at-bats are high.
2. Judge’s Current Form
Aaron Judge enters this game seeing the ball extremely well. Over his last 15 games, he has been squaring up pitches at an elite clip, with multiple hard-hit balls per game and a hard-hit rate well above 50%. His average exit velocity in this span is hovering in the mid-90s mph, a number that correlates strongly with extra-base hits and homers.
Even on days where the home run doesn’t come, Judge is elevating and pulling the ball, which is the perfect formula for Yankee Stadium’s short porch in right. Against a righty like Alexander who doesn’t have elite velocity, Judge’s timing should be spot-on.
3. Historical Power vs. Contact Pitchers
Judge has made a career out of punishing contact-first pitchers. In fact, since 2021, his HR rate against pitchers with strikeout rates under 18% is more than double his HR rate against high-strikeout arms. Alexander fits that bill perfectly.
Because contact pitchers rely on groundballs and weak contact, they often pitch to the edges but still leave mistakes over the plate. Judge’s plate discipline allows him to spit on the borderline pitches and sit dead red on one he can drive.
4. Ballpark & Weather Boost
With the game at Yankee Stadium, Judge has the perfect setting for a big fly. Even though he can clear any fence in baseball, the short right-field porch works in his favor if he’s slightly off-center on a pulled fly ball. If weather conditions favor hitters—warm air, wind blowing out—Judge’s odds increase further.
5. Likely Pitching Sequence
Alexander will likely open with sinkers away to try to induce groundballs, mixing in sliders. Judge has been crushing away sinkers all year, often going with them to the opposite field for HRs. If Alexander tries to challenge him inside, Judge’s quick hands can turn on the pitch and send it deep to left.
Prediction
The matchup, Judge’s current swing, and Yankee Stadium’s dimensions create the perfect storm. The projection from Sports Prophet AI gives Judge a 24–28% HR probability in this game—well above his season average—and makes him one of the premier home run picks of the slate.
Final Call: Aaron Judge goes deep today, and it’s likely to come in his first or second at-bat against Alexander before the bullpen takes over.
BEAST
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