Fantasy Football: QB Draft Guide Strategy 2012

Fantasy Football: QB Draft Guide Strategy 2012

By Muntradamus
BEAST DOME NATION.

Each day of the week leading up to next Monday I will cover each position of Fantasy Football.  Tuesday is QB.

 

QB is the most important position in Fantasy Football.

You can have studs everywhere on your roster, but if you are only getting 12-16 Points a week from your QB, you are very beatable.  This does not mean you have to blow your whole draft in getting the top DOG.  But I would highly recommend you do.  Here is why:

 

ADVANTAGES TO HAVING (BRADY/RODGERS/BREES):

  • You automatically have a guy that will score 20 Points, and on some weeks can explode for 40 Points.
  • You never have to worry about matchups.
  • If you have a RB who busts out of nowhere into the top 15 from the top 30, you have a huge advantage.
  • You automatically have the best player in your matchup against your opponent for that week.
  • It is also more exciting to own one of these guys. You will have a new man crush by the end of the season.
  • There are always superstar RB’s on the waiver wire every season. BEAST DOME will have you covered by the second on who to add.  Last season, I predicted Kevin Smith was a good pickup.  The next game he exploded for 213 Yards and 3 TDs being the backup RB heading into the game.
  • No reason to worry about drafting a backup QB until you feel confident all-around with your roster.

 

IF YOU DO NOT OWN (BRADY/RODGERS/BREES):

  • Focus on Building a Dream Squad, aim to grab a QB from Tier 2 after Round 5.
  • If all the Tier 2 QBs are gone, grab two QBs from Tier 3.  Even if it means drafting them in back-to-back rounds.
  • If you cannot get two Tier 3 QBs, get Matt Schaub as your backup QB since he has the best schedule, and playoff schedule.
  • Stay on top of matchups.

 

 

Fantasy Football QB TIER RANKINGS:

*Player Analysis is Below.  Round is anticipated for a 10 Team League.  If more teams, just ballpark a bit earlier.  If two QB league, ballpark to draft everyone a lot earlier.

** Players I like.

 

Tier 1: (Round 1)

** 1. Tom Brady – NE

** 2. Aaron Rodgers – GB

** 3. Drew Brees – NO

 

Tier 2: (Round 3-5)

** 4. Matthew Stafford – DET

** 5. Michael Vick – PHI

** 6. Cam Newton – CAR

** 7. Matt Ryan – ATL

Tier 3: (Round 5-7)

** 8. Tony Romo – DAL

** 9. Eli Manning – NYG

** 10. Peyton Manning – DEN

Tier 4: (Round 8-13)

** 11. Matt Schaub – HOU

12. Jay Cutler – CHI

13. Phillip Rivers – SD

** 14. Josh Freeman – TB

** 15. Robert Griffin III – WAS

** 16. Ben Roethlisberger – PIT

** 17. Andrew Luck – IND

Tier 5: (Round 13-Round 18)

18.Carson Palmer – OAK

19. Ryan Fitzpatrick – BUF

20. Alex Smith – SF

** 21. Jake Locker – TEN

22. Tim Tebow – NYJ

23. Andy Dalton – CIN

Tier 6: (Round 18-END)

24. Matt Cassel – KC

25. Joe Flacco – BAL

26. Sam Bradford – STL

27. Matt Flynn – SEA

28. MATT HASSELBECK – TEN

29. Christian Ponder – MIN

30. John Skelton – ARI

 

QB W/NEW OFFENSIVE COORDINATORS TO NOTE:

ANDREW LUCK – BRUCE ARIANS – IND

Arians was the offensive coordinator for the Steelers.  What we learned is Arians relied on Ben Roethlisberger to carry the team every week.  Some weeks he exploded for HUGE performances.  Andrew Luck should benefit from this.

 

JAY CUTLER – MIKE TICE – CHI

Mike Tice was a fan of making sure Daunte Culpepper and Randy Moss got their numbers when he was the Head Coach for the Vikings.  He implemented the Randy Ratio which basically forced the ball to Randy Moss on 40% of the pass attempts.  Look for Tice to do something similar, but this time around not tell everyone about it. If Brandon Marshall has a monster season, so will Cutler.

 

TOM BRADY – JOSH MCDANIELS – NE

Remember all of those seasons Tom Brady was the king of Fantasy Football.  He still is, but the years he really dominated with Randy Moss.  Well now he is reunited with McDaniels who was the OC during the glory days when Brady was setting TD records.  With even more weapons the sky is the limit for how good Brady can be.

 

BEN ROETHLISBERGER – TODD HALEY – PIT

To me, Todd Haley is the offensive coordinator best known for his days with Kurt Warner, Anquan Boldin, and Larry Fitzgerald as he took the Cardinals to the Superbowl with his incredible passing scheme.  This season he will have a very talented Big Ben and a great WR corpse with a minimal rushing attack with Redman the entire season.  The Steelers have already said they will go no huddle a lot this season, which should translate in big numbers.

MATT MOORE – MIKE SHERMAN – MIA

Lets see if the Packers offense all these years was really just a system offense, or if Aaron Rodgers was just that ELITE.  I am sure it has more to do with Rodgers, but for what it is worth the Packers offensive formula from last season will be with Chad Johnson and the Dolphins.

 

AARON RODGERS – TOM CLEMENTS – GB

The QB coach for Rodgers now becomes his offensive coordinator.  Clements should know exactly what his star QB is thinking as they have been on the same page for many years.

BUSTS:

PHILLIP RIVERS – SD – QB

MUNTRADAMUS QB RANK: #13
AVERAGE EXPERTS RANK: #9

Rivers digressed last season.  Numbers-wise, and just watching him play as a QB.  So what is the worst thing to do to a QB who is going downhill?  How about take away his star WR in Vincent Jackson.  The loss of Jackson is huge as he was the type of WR who could produce 150+ Yards and 2 TDs by himself in a game.  Robert Meachem is a solid replacement, but he is no Vincent Jackson.  Malcolm Floyd is a little too brittle to be a #1 WR, but he should have some nice games.  The Chargers passing game will depend on Antonio Gates, who should have a top 3 TE season if he stays healthy, I think he will.  The options are there for Rivers, but now SD is going to try to be a run 1st team as they are clearly heading into the Ryan Mathews era.  Rivers should be solid, but QB#2 solid, not a top 10 QB like everyone is drafting him to be.

 

JOE FLACCO – BAL – QB

MUNTRADAMUS QB RANK: #25
AVERAGE EXPERTS RANK: #18

Not only do the Ravens have a very tough schedule, they are a run 1st, run 2nd offense.  On top of that Anquan Boldin is only getting older, which means you can expect his production to take another hit.  Torrey Smith may be the #1 WR for the Ravens this season, and that is not an attractive go-to-WR for fantasy purposes.  Hard to see Torrey being a consistent 80 Yards and a TD player.

 

 

 

SLEEPERS:

 

MATT RYAN – ATL – QB

MUNTRADAMUS QB RANK: #7
AVERAGE EXPERTS RANK: #10

With the Falcons offense clearly steering away from the run, Matt Ryan should be in line for a monster season.  Last season Matty Ice was able to throw for over 4,100 yards and 29 TDs, and this season he has a full training camp with young star WR Julio Jones to get more N’sync.  On top of the exciting Julio Jones, Tony Gonzalez still has enough of a motor to be a top 10 TE, and Roddy White is a BEAST at the WR position.  Look for Jacquizz Rodgers to be another great passing option as a 3rd down back, and eventually get more PT than Michael Turner.  If the Falcons are going to take the next step in being a Superbowl contender, it is because Matt Ryan took that step in joining the ELITE QBs.

 

MATT SCHAUB – TEX – QB

MUNTRADAMUS QB RANK: #11
AVERAGE EXPERTS RANK: #14

The Texans have a cupcake schedule all season long.  Schaub has the potential for some monster games in easy matchups as he threw for over 373 Yards against the Saints, and 416 Yards against the Raiders last season.  The one he threw for over 416 Yards, he did not have Andre Johnson.  Look for Schaub to have a huge season as he has the best RB in the game behind him to allow Andre Johnson and Owen Daniels to break free  behind the safeties all season long.  The Texans playoff schedule is against:

Week 14: @NE
Week 15: VS. IND
Week 16: VS. MIN
Week 17: @IND

Projected QB PLAYOFF RANKINGS (Top 10):

 

*You can be the best team in your league all-season long, but choke in the playoffs having your season be good for nothing.  Players like Tony Romo, Michael Vick, Ben Roethlisberger have very tough schedules come the last days of the season.  Of course, first you have to make the playoffs so draft your strategy accordingly.

#1. AARON RODGERS – GB – QB

Week 14: VS. MIN
Week 15: @ CHI
Week 16: VS. TEN
Week 17: @ MIN


#2. CAM NEWTON – CAR – QB

Week 14: VS. ATL
Week 15: @ SD
Week 16: VS. OAK
Week 17: @NO

 

#3. DREW BREES – NO – QB

Week 14: @ NYG
Week 15: VS. TB
Week 16: @DAL
Week 17: VS. CAR

 

#4. TOM BRADY – NE – QB

Week 14: VS. HOU
Week 15: VS. SF
Week 16: @ JAC
Week 17: VS. MIA

 

#5. MATT RYAN – ATL – QB

Week 14: @ CAR
Week 15: VS. NYG
Week 16: @ DET
Week 17: VS. TB

 

#6. MATT STAFFORD – DET – QB

Week 14: @GB
Week 15: @ARI
Week 16: VS. ATL
Week 17: VS. CHI

 

#7. MATT SCHAUB – HOU – QB

Week 14: @NE
Week 15: VS. IND
Week 16: VS. MIN
Week 17: @IND

 

#8. JOSH FREEMAN – TB – QB

Week 14: VS. PHI
Week 15: @ NO
Week 16: VS. STL
Week 17: @ ATL

 

#9. JAY CUTLER – CHI- QB

Week 14: @ MIN
Week 15: VS. GB
Week 16: ARI
Week 17: @ DET

#10. PEYTON MANNING – DEN – QB

Week 14: @ OAK
Week 15: @ BAL
Week 16: VS. CLE
Week 17: VS. KC

QB RANKINGS FULL SEASON:

 


Fantasy Football Rankings powered by FantasyPros
Muntradamus is a Fantasy Sports Expert who specialize in Fantasy Football/Baseball/Basketball. He is currently in his first season as a Pro on FantasyPros where he is the only expert to have Adam Dunn, Mike Aviles, and Wilin Rosario in his top 20 at each position. Muntradamus not only leads many to championships with his great advice, and outlooks into the future. He is also consistently on the top of leaderboards in DraftStreet. In August he will compete in a $200K tournament that he qualified for of 40 people, he won two seats.

8 Comments

  1. I see Cam putting up numbers equal to the top tier QBs this year. The last 6 games of his rookie year his numbers were: 1166 pass yards, 295 rush yards, 9 pass TD, 3 INT, 5 rush TD, 0 fumbles. He was already taking huge strides towards the end of the season and I see him improving on that even further. As a mobile quarterback he managed a 60% completion rate while fellow rookie Dalton was at 58% despite being a pocket passer. The addition of Louis Murphy should give him another deep threat to go along with Smith so we may see more big plays which is what he lacked last year in comparison to other top QBs.. Losing Shockey (who had 3 of the 9 TDs in the last six weeks) should help vultured TDs by Tolbert a little bit.

  2. The difference between the Tier 1 QBs and Tier 2, especially Cam, is that the Tier 1 is a consistent 350+ Yards and 3 TDs through the air nearly every week. Sometimes more, sometimes a little bit less.

    In the sample size of those last 6 games, Cam Newton averaged less than 200 Yards passing in those games, and less than 2 TDs through the air.

    Yes his legs definitely make a difference, but you have to imagine Tolbert will steal a handful of those rushing TDs. When drafting a QB, I want a QB. Not a QB who you depend on with his legs.

    Still Cam Newton is a top 6 QB, and he can easily finish #1 in Tier 2. But the other QBs are much safer as you will get a lot more guaranteed passing yards. Comparing Dalton and Newton, Dalton is not really a good fantasy option. The Bengals have a terrible schedule and they really only have one stud WR and a solid TE. Sound familiar.. That would be the case if Newton didn’t have legs. IF Newton did not run, he would be drafted in the Dalton territory. Panthers got lucky with their schedule as well this season.

    Great observations Boom.

  3. I’d like to add that Palmer may be a sleeper this year. Last year he didn’t even get to play a single game with McFadden (who could possibly have the best hands for a RB) and didn’t have one game with all 3 starting WRs healthy. On top of that he was thrown into being the starter 6 days after being acquired, there was barely any time to learn a brand new playbook for the last 6 weeks.

    While McFadden may be a threat to work the yardage, the defense also knows that and will be focusing on him rather than the 33 year old Palmer. The young WRs are great targets right now.. DHB has put on more muscle and is starting to play the ball aggressively in the air, Moore would’ve been the top WR as a rookie but couldn’t stay healthy and Jacoby Ford is the homerun threat. If the defense didn’t improve from last year you’ll see the Raiders give up a lot of 2-4 play scoring drives which would equate to more possessions for the Raiders since no time is being taken off the clock.

    Palmer’s weakness is his lack of mobility and the Raiders decided to model their offense after Texans by taking their coordinator. We’re going to see a lot of rollouts and leaks which are both more effective with a run game which the Texans exemplified the past couple of years. While I’m not expecting top tier numbers, I think he could make a good push for the top of tier 3 when it’s all said and done. I have no problem rolling with him as my backup for this year, he might even take a couple of matchup-based starts if I don’t own a tier 1 QB.

  4. Boom you make excellent points, and he is definitely on the boarder of Tier 3 and Tier 4.

    My concerns with Palmer is that the Raiders turn into a clock management team as oppose to a high scoring team. Their defense is awful which will make T.O.P. even more important for the Silver and Black this season when they have the ball.

    McFadden is the #1 and #2 option in that offense, I do think Palmer will get his huge games I also see a lot of games where he will throw for 200 Yards and 1 TD.

    Definitely a great matchup QB, but definitely not a QB you want to depend on week in and week out.

    He could make it to the top of Tier 4, but if you get him the Tier 5 range, you are getting very solid value with no risk at all.

  5. Are you worried about Brady’s playoff schedule? He has to play the niners and last season in the fantasy playoffs he didnt really play that well against Denver, i Had Gronk and Welker and i lost because of it. Wouldnt Brees be a better option due to his cakewalk playoff schedule and the fact that he is in a dome as opposed to Foxborough or Lambeau in December? Thanks

  6. Playing against the 49ers and Texans in the playoffs is tough.

    However both games are in New England, and this offense is so good that they will get their numbers regardless of who they play. If you manage to get past those two games where Brady may be a 300 Yard 2 TD QB, then you have the 450 Yards 4 TD game against Jacksonville. Then a similar game in Week 17 if your league goes the distance.

    If you draft Brady, grab Gostkowski. Gostk will get the points that Brady did not get, you will be more than fine.

  7. If you had the #1 pick in a 12 team league, obviously you’d go Brady. Now, what if it was an 11-week regular season with playoff weeks 12+13 and 14+15? Would you still go Brady?

    Also – we get 5pts for 300+ and 10pts for 400+ yards.

    BTW – am totally convinced you’re the man. I ended up finding out about you through the cheatsheetwizard site. You were the one who was always ranking my mocks #1 :-)

    Thanks!

  8. Brian Thank you for your kind words. Glad you found your Fantasy Football home.

    Getting Brady #1 is a must. But getting Stephen Gostkowski is a Must in case Brady has trouble finding the end zone in those tough games against SF and HOU. Brady should at least move the ball with ease being in NE, just make sure you have the kicker who will get the FGs.

    http://www.beastdome.com/2012/fantasy-football-qbkicker-strategy/

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