Fantasy Basketball Draft Strategy (2012-2013):
BEAST DOME NATION.
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This article is to talk about some of my busts at the forward position. I encourage all serious BEAST DOME members to sign up for a VIP package. Not only do you get access to Muntradamus.Net (My Personal Fantasy Basketball Journal Throughout This Historic Season). You also get to e-mail questions throughout the season.
BLAKE GRIFFIN – F – LAC
Muntradamus Forward Rank: #15
Expert Consensus Rank: #8
The Dwight Howard of Forwards. Without Blocks.
No doubt the Clippers will be going to Blake early and often this season. He is the focal point of this offense as Chris Paul would much rather get 20 Assists than 20 Points. The only problem with Blake is his dreaded FT%. His production has increased across the board as you can now expect likely a block and steal per game, maybe more. I would not spend a 1st round pick on the human highlight reel, and even in leagues where FT% matters, I would maybe not even take him in the 3rd.
DIRK NOWITZKI – F – DAL
Muntradamus Forward Rank: #30
Expert Consensus Rank: #11
Knee problems already? This season is 6 months long.
Enough said about Dirk in the statement above. His inconsistent production to start the season last year could be a very similar trend this season. I am staying away from Dirk in all drafts and will gladly let other owners take him in the 3rd/4th, maybe even 5th round. The Mavericks have new weapons, those new weapons are going to be vital to the development of this team. Dirk is only getting older, and it is showing quickly.
ERSAN ILYASOVA – F – MIL
Muntradamus Forward Rank: #38
Expert Consensus Rank: #29
Ersan was a beneficiary of the Andrew Bogut injury last season.
While Ersan does not have Bogut to deal with this year, he does have Monta Ellis for a full season. Usually with that being the case, Ersan will not see the ball as often as his owners would like. Larry Sanders also seems much improved this season, Drew Gooden is coming off the bench, and Samuel Dalembert will be the starter at Center this season. A lot of players fighting for that one PF spot. I would avoid him in my draft.
DAVID LEE – F/C – GSW
Muntradamus Forward Rank: #20
Expert Consensus Rank: #9
Lee was one of the best players in Fantasy Basketball to close out last season.
That was when Klay Thompson was just getting situated, Stephen Curry was injured, and Andrew Bogut did not exist. Take all those three things into consideration, as well as the addition of Carl Landry off the bench. David Lee is in an interesting situation where he could take a decrease in all his numbers. His rebounding potential remains great as he will have some nights where he reminds you of Kevin Love, without the 3’s or monster point production.
Grab Lee if he falls late in your draft, but do not reach for him in the 2nd/3rd round like other experts think he will produce like.
KRIS HUMPHRIES – F – BRK
Muntradamus Forward Rank: #34
Expert Consensus Rank: #26
Brook Lopez is healthy.
Not having Brook last season was a huge edge for Humphries as he had too many easy opportunities to grab as many rebounds as he wanted. Once Gerald Wallace became a Net, Humphries saw a small decrease in production. Now with Joe Johnson on the team, and Andray Blatche looking like his vintage self. Humphries has a sharp decline his heading his way in production across the board, and on the boards.
LUIS SCOLA – F – PHO
Muntradamus Forward Rank: #41
Expert Consensus Rank: #30
Scola forgot how to rebound.
How many of you owned Luis Scola last season only to look in the box score the next morning to see he grabbed 5 Rebounds in 35+ Minutes? I was not one of those owners, but I was seeing it first hand.
It just did not make sense as all Luis is good for is 18 Point/8 Rebound games. If he is not getting those 8 rebounds, give me Tayshaun Prince instead 8 round later for similar value. The scoring is inconsistent and he ends up with more 12 Point games than anything. Being on a Suns team where Gortat is the go-to-guy, Dragic is the magic man, and Beasley will shoot anything he touches. Scola is just a great pick for his value.
DAVID WEST – F – IND
Muntradamus Forward Rank: #49
Expert Consensus Rank: #33
The Pacers have too much talent.
Between Roy Hibbert being one of the fastest growing offensive big men in the league. Danny Granger needing his 18+ Shot Attempts every night as he is one of the best PURE shooters in the game. Last but not least Paul George who is a budding All-Star and would probably be there already if there was less competition for touches. David West is simply going too early in draft. His days of scoring 20 Points a game are long gone, his days of getting 10 Rebounds a game consistently are long gone. Now we are left with a Pacers offense where the hot hand will switch every night. Did I mention Tyler Hansbrough who is just waiting for his opportunity in the NBA glaring at West from the sideline every night.
Fantasy Basketball Preseason Forward Rankings