Fantasy Baseball Strategy: Batting Average Is Overrated (2013)
Fantasy Baseball Strategy:
Batting Average Is Overrated (2013)
BEAST DOME NATION.
I was contemplating posting my entire Draft Strategy, but because of the huge success of the VIP #1 Packages and all the positive Feedback. I have decided to hold that information Hostage for the time being until I get more people asking for it.
At the end of this Weekend all my Rankings will be updated and posted for you. Today I will tell you why you should not draft players because of their high batting averages.
DRAFT GUIDE VOL. III
BATTING AVERAGE IS OVERRATED?
Before we get started. I do want to say the players like Adam Dunn who will hit around .200 will hurt your baseball team more often than not. But a player like Joe Mauer who will hit around .320 with 10 HRs and be drafted as the #2 Catcher Overall is not the way to go.
JOE MAUER VS. J.P. ARENICIBIA
Joe Mauer in Round 4 with his 10 HRs/.320 Average/10 SBs/100 Runs. VS. a J.P. Arencibia in Round 18 with his 25 HR/.230 Average/3 SBs/65 Runs.
Sure Joe Mauer is a big name and does great “Head & Shoulders” commercials as well as being the cover man on Video Games. But he is turning into a very overrated Fantasy Player. The only positive on Mauer is his 100 Runs from the Catcher position, but why pass on getting Jacoby Ellsbury who has 30 HR/50 SB potential or even miss out on a potential CY Young Pitcher in R.A. Dickey who will finally have great run support in 2013.
Mauer is a great fantasy player, but will his extra .90 Average Points make that big of a difference? The easy answer is no. Let’s say you have 10 Batters on your team. Every batter on your team will get 500 At Bats. That gives you 5,000 At Bats. If Joe Mauer gets 100 Hits, will that 100 Hits make a difference in those 5,000 At Bats. The answer is no, and the answer is to wait and take J.P. Arencibia towards the end of your draft. Save your high draft picks for players that bring real value to your team.
JOEY VOTTO vs. GARRETT JONES
Here is a guy in Joey Votto who will hit above .320. You have to take him in Round #1 and you have to hope for 35 Home Runs and a clean bill of health. Garrett Jones is a guy who will not get drafted in most leagues, he is on a contract season, and he can easily hit 30 Home Runs. Garrett Jones may lose .70-.80 points of batting average compared to Votto, but once again we ask the question?
Will those extra 50-70 Hits make a big difference? The answer is no, especially when the Home Run/RBI potential is semi-comparable and you can wait the ENTIRE draft to get this player. Instead of drafting a declining Joey Votto who may not steal 10+ Bases again, you can get a Justin Verlander or even a potential 40 HR/40 SB player in Carlos Gonzalez. Go ahead and wait, do not take Joey Votto because of his amazing batting average.
Or even wait until the end of the draft and get Adam Dunn who will have more power than Joey Votto. When Adam Dunn is hot, he will hit above .300. One of the streakiest players in baseball, Dunn is an easy 40 HRs every season, 2011 was a fluke. If you can put Dunn on your bench, he is extremely valuable.
PABLO SANDOVAL vs. TREVOR PLOUFFE
Why take Pablo Sandoval as a Top 10 3B option. His days of hitting 20 HRs are likely done. He is not in shape, which does not bode well for a player who we can say is, “Fat.” He will hit maybe above .300 by a smudge. Instead you can wait until the #20 3B option for a up and coming Trevor Plouffe the Magic Dragon. Plouffe has more power, exemplified by his 20+ Home Runs as a Minor League call up, and injured for a good chunk of 2012. Plouffe may hit above .230, which is about a .70 point differential in batting average. But then we ask again.
Will the extra 40-50 Hits make that big of a difference. The answer is once again no on a team where you will get 5,000 At Bats. I would much rather wait until the end of my draft and get a player with more Power and more RBI potential than a player who will go 1-3 just as often as Plouffe goes 0-4. But those days where you get a 3-5/2 HRs/4 RBIs from Trevor. Those days make you happy that you waited on Plouffe and used that higher draft Pick on a comeback pitching performance from an Ian Kennedy.
DUSTIN PEDROIA vs. CHASE UTLEY
Dustin Pedroia will go in Round #2 or Round #3. He will hit above .300, but a 20 HR/20 SB season is looking like a best case scenario for the Laser Show. Now I do believe it is important to fill your middle infield, but I also do believe that drafting a player like Pedroia in Round #2 is a huge mistake. With your #2 Pick or #3 Pick, you need a player that will fill up all the categories. Pedroia does fill up all the categories, but he does not make an impact in any.
While Chase Utley does come with some injury risk, he was fine when he returned late in 2012. He appears to be 100% and I would much rather take his potential 6+ Rounds later. While Pedroia is a great player, he is very much on the Joe Mauer level. When it comes down to the end of the season, the Joe Mauer type players will not win you your league unless you drafted other sleepers that turned out having amazing seasons. Do yourself a favor and realize that if you missed out on Cano/Kinsler, then you might as well wait on your 2B option instead of being desperate and reaching for Pedroia.
Do not take a player very high because of his amazing batting average. Of course a player like Buster Posey who will hit .320 with 30 HRs at the Catcher Position makes him beyond amazing. But a player who puts up good, not great numbers with an amazing batting average is not worth the high pick. You are sacrificing 3-4 Categories for 1. You are also sacrificing a high draft pick that could be used for an amazing pitcher.
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You may be able to get a good pitcher in the place of a hitter but pitchers are more unpredictable than hitters. Look who was #1 sp last year… Halladay. now? pfft he will b lucky to make it as a top 30-50 SP.
i love the title of this article… now i know that everything i learned, i learned from munt =)
i never draft high avg players, i’ve had dozens of teams but never votto or mauer, if u fill up your team with potential members of the 30/30 club you will make the finals
great showcase munt
Thanks for the info Munstras, I have several of theses players, maybe trading them for the other person will benefit me as I can pick up other players I really want just because of name recognition. I’ll let ya know how it works out, for sure, lol.
Hey Munstras, Beast Ntion, here’s my other teams:
Any thoughts on shelby miller, worth keeping? Any players I should keep, trade, acquire?
Great post. I’ve got a dynamite team holding out til the 15th for Rosario. Got Ellsbury in the 4th. Got another draft next week and I’m primed for a big season. My outfield: Trout, Ellsbury, Hamilton. Cespedes, Jennings, Ludwick.
Halladay got injured last season and never really recovered. Even to this day he is lucky to do anything this season throwing an 84-85 mph Fastball (all pitcher Rankings will be updated again).
But to say Hitters are more predictable than pitchers is semi-true. Which goes to show that you can get great value very late. Someone like Jason Kubel is a guaranteed 30 Home Runs, while a pitcher you would draft in that area if you are lucky is a Jonathan Niese. I would much rather have the Jason Kubel in the later rounds, and the Johnny Cueto in the earlier rounds.
Without a doubt. 30 HR/30 SB players are a huge part of my draft strategy that the V.I.P. #1 Members have been seeing with their teams.
GW you soak up my information like a sponge, and championships come to you season after season after season ;)
Good Luck Rev and always look to upgrade those names for the better pitcher and the hitter listed while you can.
I think Trout is going to bust this season. Harper will be the guy next year in the top 10 overall picks.
Thanks for the article. Will you be posting a general draft strategy article, such as helping us determine which positions to go for first?
Great Article!!! Since I’m still a little new at the Fantasy World I have a tendendy to rely more on the rankings (since you did all the work already i guess!!!). These articles make alot of sense and help push me in the right direction to evaluate players to target those who will improve my team.
Great Article, being new to the fantasy world I found it just easier to go by YOUR rankings. These articles help spell out how to take it to the next level and what to look for choosing or trading for players. Looking forward to the next one….
I am saving that information for V.I.P. Clients so they can get their value. But if you read in-between the lines you should be able to figure out some sort of strategy with this article ;)
Glad you enjoy the articles. All Rankings will be updated again Wednesday.
Feel free to join the BEAST NATION so you do not have to be Anonymous
Thanks for the feedback Dave. Glad to have you on board as a V.I.P. member in 2013, lets go for the back-to-back championships coming off of Football!
V.I.P is the only way to be!!!
After the Football Championship I couldn’t wait for Baseball to start. Looking forward to a great seaon in Fantasy Baseball.