FANTASY BASEBALL: Oh No You Didn’t FA Moves Vol.1

FANTASY BASEBALL: Oh No You Didn’t

FA Moves (Vol. 1)

By Muntradamus

This Article will feature 5 Players that could have been dropped in your league, and you will take advantage and pick them up.

Fantasy baseball is a game patience and trends.  The season is long, and some hitters are hot, while some hitters just get in terrible cold streaks.  The key is to analyze pitching matchups, but most importantly, how hot a hitter it is.
For example this month:

Edwin Encarnacion (.322 Average. 8 HR. 21 RBI. 4 SB)

Last Season he had 0 HRs in the month of April.  If that happened to him today he would probably be on Waiver Wires right now.  How did he follow up a 0 HR April month.  By hitting only 1 May HR.  Here we have the most popular player in fantasy baseball today who only had 1 HR through the first two months of the season.

So how did he follow that up?  He hit 15 HRs in the final 4 months of the season.  If he would have continued that pace he would have had about 24 HRs compared to what was only 17.  So you get the point, batters get hot and cold.  The pace Edwin is on is ridiculous, and I do not expect him to hit more than 30.  Right now you could trade him as if he was worth that.  Easily.
*To Talk Fantasy Baseball 24/7 Join the BEAST DOME NATION.  It is all Free!

FIVE PLAYERS YOU SHOULD NOT DROP:

 

#1. Adam Lind – 1B- (.203 Average. 1 HR. 7 RBI)

When you think of Adam Lind you think..This guy can hit 30 HRs and drive in 100 RBIs if he puts it all together.  The problem with Lind is it is hard for him to put it all together consistently throughout a season.  But when he gets going, there is no turning back.

Last season Lind had 26 HRs and 87 RBIs in 125 Games, that is MVP caliber like for a 1B option.

Here is why he should not be a FA:
*Last Season

April 2nd – April 25th. 0 HRs. 9 RBIs.

April 26th – May 6th. 6 HRs. 15 RBIs.

After that point he got injured, but he came back and continued to mash.  Lind has huge power and he should not be a FA, but right now is owned in 75% of Sportsline leagues. This number continues to drop, but it will go straight up once he gets going.

Prediction: (.240 Average. 25 HR. 82 RBI)

 

 

#2. Mark Reynolds – 1B/3B – (.143 Average. 0 HR. 3 RBI)

When you think of Mark Reynolds, you remember the days when he was a Fantasy MVP with the Diamondbacks.  44 HRs, 102 RBIs, 24 SBs.  Fantasy numbers from a 3B option do not get much better than that.  Even with the .260 batting average it would still make him the #1 3B option drafted today.  Flash forward two seasons, and Reynolds managed to hit 37 HRs in his first year with the Orioles.  The speed decreased to 6 SBs, and the batting average is now around .222.

Reynolds is averaging over 31 HRs a season in his career, including a 17 spot he hit as a rookie in 111 games.  This guy is still mashing the ball at a high rate.  So why would an owner get impatient with him?

Here is why he should not be a FA:
*Last Season

April: 2 HRs
May: 5 HRs
June: 8 HRs
July: 8 HRs
August: 8 HRs
September: 6 HRs

As you can see Reynolds is  a player who can heat up and just start going.  He typically is a slow-starter, and I would not be worried about his recent struggles.  He was battling an illness for a good part of this month as well.  Mark Reynolds is only owned in 74% of Sportsline leagues, and the number is dropping.

Prediction: (.215 Average. 31 HR. 80 RBI. 5 SB)

 

 

#3. Delmon Young – OF – (.242 Average. 1 HR. 5 RBI)

When you think of Delmon Young, you think of a player that could have had it all.  Adele probably sings that song about Delmon Young now that I think about it..

This season Delmon Young was destined for big things.  He was batting 5th behind: Miguel Cabrera, and Prince Fielder.  Also last season Young had 32 RBIs and 8 HRs in 40 Games with Detroit.  How could he not get 30 HRs and 100 RBIs this season.

Well after his slow start, he acted like a fool and got suspended for 7 games.  The Tigers will not discipline him as they know they need his bat for their offense to reach its potential.  So should you be worried about his slow start after his great spring?
Here is why he should not be a FA:
*Last Season

April: 0 HRs
May: 1 HRs
June: 1 HRs
July: 0 HRs
August: 4 HRs
September: 6 HRs
This Spring alone, Delmon Young had 6 HRs.  He was destined for big things, and a slow start should not discourage you.  He will be more focused than ever when he comes back.  Delmon is only owned in 62% of Sportsline leagues and the number is declining quickly with the suspension.

Prediction: (.268 Average. 25 HR. 87 RBI. 3 SB)

 

 

#4. J.P. Arencibia – C – (.187 Average. 1 HR. 10 RBI. 1 SB)

Yes there is some reason to panic when you hear J.P.’s name.  One I cursed him to start the season by ranking him higher than any catcher on Fantasy Pros by a good margin.  Jeff Mathis is outperforming him.  Last but not least, Travis D’Arnaud who is a top catching prospect could possibly make his ways into the bigs if J.P. keep struggling.

So how did a majority of the fantasy baseball world take all this in you ask?  They simply cut him.  His ownership has dropped from 84% to 62%, and that number may be on the decline.  But it is still J.P. Arencibia.


Here is why he should not be a FA:

  • 3 HRs in April Last Season.  Not far off from his 1.
  • Since April 19th, J.P. is hitting with a .312 Batting average.
  • Last year in his rookie season he hit 26 HRs.  He should only be getting better.
  • J.P. is currently T-11th with all catchers in RBIs.

If you have the opportunity to snag J.P. for someone like Russell Martin, you are not risking anything at all.  Arencibia should find his power stroke soon, and by then he will be snatched off the waiver wires quickly.

Prediction: (.225 Average. 25 HR. 78 RBI. 4 SB)

 

 

#5. Ryan Raburn – 2B/OF – (.148. 0 HR. 1 RBI. 1 SB)

Wow, 0 HRs for a player a lot of people were unsure about will not help his value.  But here is what will, 6 HRs this Spring.  That may not sound impressive at all now that the first month is over and he is still at 0, but there are some positive signs for Rayburn.

1. They got rid of Brandon Inge.

That is the only positive sign which means there should be everyday PT moving forward.  He will have to earn it, but only Ramon Santiago is the only one standing in his way.  Santiago is no threat in the fantasy baseball world.  Raburn is typically a 2nd Half hitter and here is evidence to show that.

Here is why he should not be a FA:

2009: 16 HRs in 113 Games.  April – July. 6 HRs.
2010: 15 HRs in 113 Games.  April – July. 2 HRs.
2011:  14 HRs in 121 Games.  April – July. 9 HRs.

As you can see, historically Ryan Raburn is a slow starter.  In that season where he hit 9 HRs in April through July, it included a May where he had 0 HRs.  I would not give up on Raburn this season as this is the first time he has a chance to play 140 Games easily this season.   In this Tigers lineup he should explode.  Keep him around, or add him as his ownership has gone from 60% to 28%.

 

Prediction: (.260 Average. 21 HR. 67 RBI. 6 SB)

 

21 Comments

  1. All of the players listed are available (sans Arencibia, whom I drafted). Do you see any glaring moves I should make?

    C – Arencibia
    1B – Adam LaRoche
    2B – Cuddyer
    3B – Youkilis
    SS – Tulo
    MI – Aviles
    OF – Austin Jackson, Swisher, LaHair
    Util – Dunn
    BN – Mike Trout, Mark Trumbo

    SP – Ricky Romero
    SP – Felix Hernandez
    SP – Jonathon Niese
    SP – Ryan Vogelsong
    SP – Felix Hernandez
    SP – Hiroki Kuroda
    SP – Dan Haren
    SP – Joe Saunders
    RP – Addison Reed
    RP – Matt Thornton
    RP – Heath Bell
    DL – Drew Storen
    DL – Andrew Bailey

  2. Im in a 8 team points league. this is how my team looks as of now after some trades… what do you think? Pitchers are favored because they can get lots more points in one game.
    C – Yadier Molina
    1B – Joey Votto
    2B – Brandon Phillips
    3B – Adrian Beltre
    SS – Jimmy Rollins
    OF – Shane Victorino
    OF – Carlos Beltran
    OF – Justin Upton
    UTIL – Paul Konerko
    UTIL – Aramis Ramirez
    BN- Melkey Cabrera
    SP – Cliff Lee
    SP – Roy Halladay
    RP – Craig Kimbrel
    RP – Brandon League
    P – Ricky Romero
    P – Ardolis Chapman
    P – Kyle Lohse
    P – Colby Lewis
    BN- Vance Worley
    BN – Jaime Garcia
    BN- Ted Lily
    BN- Max Scherzer
    DL – Daniel Hudson

    Theres not to many good people available so if im looking to upgrade it would be through trade…
    Would Beltran, Brandon Phillips, and konerko be good to trade and get Kinsler and Texeira? then I could pick up another pitcher because its pointless to have bench hitters in our league cuz they all pretty much play everyday…and their not as valuable. thanks for all the help in advance!! :)

  3. Jto I like your team.

    All of your hitters are capable of putting up big games.

    Your pitchers are solid, but they could be better.

    Lee. Halladay. Romero. Lohse. Worley. Lewis. Lilly. Garcia. Scherzer. Hudson is how I would rank your starter staff. It is strong enough to win you games.
    Bullpen is beastly.

    I like the trade offer you have proposed, if you could pick up Delmon Young to give yourself a solid OF option to platoon with Cabrera you would be in good shape.

    Phillips and Beltran for Kinsler is like trading a 4th and 6th round pick for a 1st pick. I say do that.

    Tex should have much better numbers than Konerko when the season is over, you are simply selling high on Beltran and Konerko for better players. Good move.

    Keep me updated.

  4. JHill,

    LaRoche does not seem to be a guy I would trust an entire season at 1B. You do have LaHair, Trumbo, Cuddyer as good fill in options, but I would not be afraid to add Mark Reynolds for Trout. The Angels have too many weapons on their offense, and Trout will not see everyday PT if he continues to not impress. Peter B., Hunter, Wells, and sometimes Trumbo all play in the OF.

    Reynolds will get going soon, his power stroke will make him must start material. Reynolds could platoon at Util-1B-3B in your lineup when he is hot. Dunn is also a streaky player so that will give you more flexibility.

    Another alternate is to wait for Raburn to hit his 1st HR. If you can Raburn when he gets hot, that will give you the flexibility of moving Cuddyer to your OF and 1B. This is the more strategic play as I would still drop him for Trout. Right now Raburn is doing nothing..

    Keep me updated

  5. Hey
    I don’t have any of these players but am afraid of arencibia and reynolds because strikeout count in my league. I am in a 10 team keeper league. Any thoughts on my team would be appreciated. We play OBP instead of AVG and pitchers WHIP.

    C) Miguel Montero
    1B) Miguel Cabrera
    2B) Brandon Phillips
    3B) Pablo Sandoval
    SS) Asdrubal Cabrera
    OF) Giancarlo (Mike) Stanton
    OF) Kendrys Morales
    OF) Michael Bourn
    UTIL) Pedro Alverez
    UTIL) Chris Davis
    Bench) Jose Altuve
    Bench) Dee Gordon
    DL) Stephen Drew

    SP) Lance Lynn
    SP) Anibal Sanchez
    SP) Brandon Beachy
    SP) James Shields
    SP) Matt Cain
    SP) Edison Volquez
    CP) Mariano Rivera
    CP) Huston Street
    CP) Jonathon Broxton
    RP) Tony Sipp
    RP) Mitchell Boggs

  6. 12 team roto-league. We have no bench space and one DL slot. Everyone in the league is a shark and there aren’t very good waiver pickups. My offense needs a facelift, but I don’t know what to do. Any advice?

    C – Yadier Molina
    1B – Chris Davis
    2B – Robinson Cano
    3B – Pedro Alvarez
    SS – Starlin Castro
    OF – Michael Cuddyer
    OF – Martin Prado
    OF – Josh Reddick
    UTIL – Rickie Weeks
    UTIL – Dee Gordon
    BN- Kevin Youkilis (DL)
    DL – Carl Crawford

    P – Justin Verlander
    P – Tim Lincecum
    P – Zack Grienke
    P – Jordan Zimmermann
    P – Brett Myers
    P – Alfredo Aceves
    P – Fernando Rodney
    P – Frank Francisco
    BN- Jordan Walden
    BN – Chad Billingsley

    I really want to drop Rickie Weeks. He has been terrible this season and, because of the limited bench space, is dragging down my team. Please Muntradamus, you are my only hope.

  7. the guy vetoed that trade unfortunately… and i havent picked up scherzer yet…i was thinking of also getting billingsley, feliz, brandon mccarthy, or matt harrison at pitcher

    the batters that i could pick up instead of a pitcher are carlos lee, prado, jayson werth, avila, jesus montero, dee gordon.

    I would prolly rather get a pitcher, but with that list of players are there any i should pick up and drop a player for?

    Maybe i should trade lilly and beltran for an upgrade at pitcher, but who should i target?

    sorry for the questions, but thanks very much for the advice! love beating my friends because of you!

  8. Hey Muntz!

    Some questions!

    1. Is Walden still expected to finish in your top 15 RP?

    2. Would Angel Pagan be an upgrade to either Coco Crispy or Jemile Weeks?

    3. Is Ian Desmond still a good own?

    Thanks for everything! By the way, I won all 3 of my ESPN leagues =)

  9. I also won one of my CBS weekly leagues that I was barely watching. Even had Aldridge starting the final week and still won! Sorry to double post, question #4 – Is Altuve the real deal or just on a hot streak?

  10. Kessler Welcome to Beast Dome!

    Offensively your team is very solid with no holes. I would not be worried there. That was until Pablo got hurt. Now you can move Pedro to 3B and activate Gordon.

    Gordon and Altuve are great bench players when your team is healthy, and Kendry Morales will break out of his slump soon. I do not really see the need for Stephen Drew on your team, and I would drop him for J.P. When J.P. is hot play him, and when he is not, play Montero. Your team will be much more effective.

    Pitching I really like your team. If you could get David Robertson for Rivera that would be huge, if now look at Andrew Cashner or Rafael Soriano as set-up men if there are no closers on the wire.

    You should join the chat I can already tell you would have a good time in the community. I will re-send you your password personally.

    Keep me updated.

  11. Brew I got you.

    Your offense has some hot bats, but you are going to run into problems soon once Chris Davis, Josh Reddick and Alvarez cool down. If you give me some waiver wire options I can definitely help you out. As much as you want to drop Weeks, you have to keep him as he can heat up when your other guys get cold. Fantasy Baseball is a cycle of hot and cold throughout the year.

    Your pitching staff is very solid. That I do not see any weakness besides the fact you can drop Frank Francisco. I do not think he is a player you will need on your team, especially when Walden reclaims his closer role.

    Give me some pitching and hitting FA’s and I can help you more.

    Keep me updated, and if you want quicker advice join the BEAST DOME NATION. The community is great with answering questions.

    http://www.beastdome.com/the-arena

  12. JTo

    I would do the following moves.

    Add: Gordon
    Drop: Cabrera

    Gordon gives you a great SS option when Rollins gets cold or injured. He also can be played for Aramis when he is cold.

    Add: Billingsley
    Add: McCarthy

    Drop: Scherzer (or whoever is in that spot)
    Drop: Hudson

    Billingsley is looking elite this season. He is on top of his game. McCarthy is that A’s pitcher who takes his game to the next level like so many have before.

  13. GW,

    1. Yes, Walden will get his closer role back. He was an All-Star his first MLB season, the Angels have to see him as their franchise closer.

    2. No, I would rather have Weeks and Crispy Treats who have much higher upside. 40+ SBs for Crisp. 10 HRs 30 SBs for Weeks. Pagan is only good for 30+ SBs.

    3. Ian Desmond is hot and he should have a big Friday. He is a great own.

    Congrats on winning all 3 of your ESPN Leagues and the 1 Sportsline league. It would be greatly appreciated if you could write up something in the Testimonials section.

    http://www.beastdome.com/fantasy-basketball-testimonials-201

    Thanks in advance, and keep me updated on your team.

  14. Thanks for your promt reply and sending the password. I’m all signed in now. I’m excited about my team because last year (my first year playing fantasy baseball) I came in 8th place and did horrible. This year I’m a competitor.

    No Rivera is hurt. My number 1 closer. So this is what I did. I dropped Volquez and picked up Edward Mujica. And someone dropped Sergio Santos so I am scheduled to pick him up off waivers for Jose Altuve.

    The purpose for Drew was trade bate. SS are hard to come by as the season moves on. But I will probably drop him now with Pablo and Rivera on DL and hopefully I’ll have Santos on the DL as well.

    About Montero, I though he was a poor mans version of Brian McCann. Correct me if I’m wrong, but isn’t that a must start caliber player. No a ride hot streak kind of guy. I know he doesn’t play everyday but for a catcher he plays more than most.

  15. Change that. Don’t know what I was thinking. Keeping Jose Altuve. Dropping Drew getting Santos hopefully. Stupid waiver wire.

  16. Thanks Munt! Testimonial written! One last question for now, is Robertson the real deal for NYY? The RP I can drop to make room: Street, League, Chapman, Nathan on one team. Marshall, Nathan, League on my second team. On my third team he was picked up by the guy who had Mariano.

    Also, this is a stretch but if you have time, I’d really appreciate you taking a general look at all my teams!

    Here they are in the order I drafted them.

    http://games.espn.go.com/flb/clubhouse?leagueId=41871&teamId=10&seasonId=2012

    http://games.espn.go.com/flb/clubhouse?leagueId=272716&teamId=6&seasonId=2012

    http://games.espn.go.com/flb/clubhouse?leagueId=269562&teamId=4&seasonId=2012

  17. I stumbled across your article surfing the web. I am looking for any advice. I am a newbie at fantasy baseball and believe it or not, I am now 4 – 0 but I am always looking to improve. I am in a 12 team keeper league. We have 3 bench slots and 1 DL spot.

    All the people are available in my league except Lind. Do you have any suggestions. I was definitely thinking about dropping Alvarez for Reynolds. Any thoughts on anything else that you see?

    Hitters

    C – Yadler Molina
    1B – Lucas Duda
    2B – Jemile Weeks
    3B – Pedro Alvarez
    SS – Jimmy Rollins
    2B/SS – Starlin Castro
    1B/3B – Adrian Beltre
    OF – Michael Bourn
    OF – Cameron Maybin
    OF – Matt Joyce
    OF – Alejandro De Aza
    OF – Ty Wigginton
    Util – Jesus Montero
    Bench – 3B – Evan Longoria
    Bench – OF – Alex Rios
    DL – Jacoby Ellsbury

    Pitchers

    SP – Madison Brmgarner
    SP – Jordan Zimmermann
    SP – Anibal Sanchez
    SP – Tim Hudson
    SP – Mat Latos
    SP – Jeff Samardzija
    RP – Jonathan Papelbon
    RP – Brandon League
    RP – Santiago Casilla
    Bench – SP – Wandy Rodriguez

    Thanks for your help.

  18. JD Welcome to BEAST DOME.

    Looking at your team, you have a very solid lineup. If there was one player I would drop comfortably, it would be Ty Wigginton. However his versatility if he qualifies at 3B and 1B is impeccable. But, I would still drop him.

    Drop him for Mark Reynolds who has 30+ HR potential and his bat is just starting to get going.

    Then move Rios into an everyday OF slot for your team.

    Pitching your team looks great. Players like Latos, Samardzija, and Zimmerman could lose value later in the season. Hold onto them for now while their value builds.

    Good Luck and keep me updated

  19. First of all, thanks for your advice. I joined your site under the name LastMile. Got to say, love your site and the articles you are putting out on a daily basis. Definitely, keeping this site to myself and not sharing with the other managers.

    I took your advice and dropped Wigginton for Reynolds. Though I went out on my own and dropped Rios and added Allen Craig. We will see if it pans out.

    Thanks again,

    JD / LastMile

  20. GW,

    Looking at your team here are the moves I would make.

    You have too many injuries to keep Coco Crisp on board. Your offense is a mess with no depth, and I would waive him with no problems.

    Look for Allen Craig to be your savior. He will play everyday, bat cleanup, and qualify at 1B/OF.

    I know it can get frustrating having a cold offensive team like you do. But when everyone heats up, you are going to be loving you team a lot more.

    Also looking at your Waiver Wire, RP seems to be laying around everywhere. With that being the case, Doug Fister is a must-add and it would be wise to grab him now as he can be an invaluable part of your pitching staff. I would recommend dropping Huston Street just because you know you will be able to grab another RP later on if you need to.

    I would also switch out Brennan Boesch for the much hotter Delmon Young.

    Good luck and keep me updated!

Close
Close