FANTASY BASEBALL 2016
PARRA YOUR WORLD
Josh Hillinger has been part of the BEAST DOME NATION before BEAST DOME was BEAST DOME. He is an avid Fantasy Player and has been learning under my wing since the 2011 Fantasy Sports Season. Many of the VIPs know him as J-Hill or J-Hillionare. He expressed to me he was applying to write for other Fantasy Sites, so instead of letting him go to the jungle with my playbook on his mind, he is now one of the lead writers for BEAST DOME.
Enjoy the article.
FANTASY BASEBALL 2016
PARRA YOUR WORLD
By Josh Hillinger
There’s a potential 20/20 candidate.
He’s batting fifth for the Colorado Rockies.
The players in front of him are on base a third of the time.
And he could be yours for a 9th or 10th round pick.
TAP THE ROCKIES
A rule of thumb: draft Colorado Rockies.
If you don’t already know, the Rockies play in Coors Field. Coors Field is at a high altitude – 5280 feet above sea level. Higher altitudes have thinner air, which means there is less friction.
Translation: The ball goes farther when it’s hit.
from the Colorado Rockies website*:
It is estimated that a home run hit 400 feet in sea-level Yankee Stadium would travel about 408 feet in Atlanta and as far as 440 feet in the Mile High City.
Throw in an average tailwind and line drives turn into home runs.
In 1995, the Montreal Expos (remember them) let Larry Walker walk. He signed Colorado Rockies, took the average amount of steroids for 1995, and went from hitting a homerun every 20 plate appearances to crushing a long bomb every 13th at bat.
Todd Helton, a contact hitter first, averaging .316 in 17 years with the Rockies, had 8 seasons with 20 or more home runs, because just making contact with the ball in Coors Field can take it over the fence. Even in his final season Helton took the ball yard 15 times when he batted only .249.
Now let’s take a look at the 2016 Rockies Batting Order …
- Charlie Blackmon OF
- DJ LeMaieu 2B
- Carlos González OF
- Nolan Arenado 3B
- Gerardo Parra OF
The first 4 in that lineup are in the exact same position they were last year, minus a little toggling between 3 and 4 from when Tulo was still in the lineup. By the end of the year, they put up these numbers:
- Charlie Blackmon OF – BA .287 – OBP .347– SB 43
- DJ LeMaieu 2B – BA .301 – OBP .358 – SB 23
- Carlos González OF – BA .271 – OBP .325 – SB 2
- Nolan Arenado 3B – BA .287 – OBP .323 – SB 2
I did not include runs scored and RBI because with those numbers, you can assume they came in at an average rate.
These are four players who GET ON BASE.
Batting 4th is Arenado, who hit 42 HRs last season. Batting 5th is Gerardo Parra, the sleeper outfielder in YOUR fantasy baseball lineup.
PARRA-M PUM PUM PUM
In 36 at bats at Spring Training, Parra is batting .306 with 1 HR, 7 RBI, and 3 stolen bases.
Okay, 1 home run every 36 bats. Multiplied by the number of at bats he had last season, Parra would be on pace to hit between 14-15 home runs, the same as he had last season. Hmm, 14 home runs, good speed, ADP of 195 … yeah, this guy has sleeper potential.
But wait a minute … Spring Training isn’t at Coors Field … it’s in Arizona.
So the HR numbers could go up … he’s already swiping bags … and … what else … I’m forgetting something … oh that’s right…
HE’S BATTING FIFTH FOR THE COLORADO ROCKIES!
Let’s look at a few scenarios.
Senario 1: Arenado blasts one before Parra comes to the plate. Lets say this happens 30-45 times this season. Parra is told to get on base and steal another.
Scenario 2: Arenado gets intentionally walked. Parra is told to swing away, a ‘la Joaquin Phoenix in ‘Signs.’
Scenario Math: There’s a 1/3 chance Parra comes to the plate with men on base. Parra has a 1/3 chance of getting a hit. Parra has a chance for a hit and an 1/6 plate appearances.
Parra went 14/14 in 155 games last season. He was one of only 19 players to hit that mark.
He’s a lifetime .277 hitter and should get plenty of at bats with men on base.
He’s going to play. The Rockies are giving him almost $10 mil a year to play. He’s not the best against lefties, but the only other outfielder who could make a stab for some at bats is also not so good against lefties.
Ok. I’m not going to say BEAST. You’re picking him up for VALUE.
I’ve been monitoring him for a while.
On Yahoo, he’s ranked 119 but going off the board at 200. Two weeks ago he was going in the 19th round. Last week, the 13th round. This week he’s been going in the 10th. Just FYI.
On ESPN, he’s ranked at 249, and going off the board at 213.
Start him against righties. Monitor him against lefties.