Fantasy Baseball: Why Adam Dunn is going to have a 40 HR season.
The age old question. Will Adam Dunn bounce back this season?
It’s never easy for a superstar talent to go to another team, in a different league, in a big city, where he has huge expectations. A classic example of a similar situation is Adrian Beltre. Beltre went to the Mariners, signed a mega contract, and a year after hitting 48 mammoth Home Runs for the Dodgers, he went on to only hit 19 in Seattle. The year after that he did improve to hit 25 bombs and it took a leave out of Seattle to get his “real” stroke back.
Now you take a much more consistent power hitter in Adam Dunn who for the past 7 seasons averaged over 40.28 Home Runs per year. Then he went to Chicago and his batting average took a .100 point dip, similar to what happened to Beltre in Seattle. In that season Dunn had a 2 game hitting streak or more only 10 times throughout the year. In those 10 streaks, Dunn launched 7 of his 11 Home Runs.
Now let’s take a look at the season before (2010) where he launched 38 long balls for the Nationals. Dunn in that season had a hitting streak of 2 games or more 25 times throughout that season. In those 25 streaks, Dunn clubbed 30 of his 38 Home Runs.
Now let’s take a look at the season before that (2009) where he again launched 38 long balls for the Nationals. Dunn in that season had a hitting streak of 2 games or more 24 times throughout that season. In those 24 streaks, Dunn blasted 35 of his 38 Home Runs.
We can go even further back to the season where Adam Dunn only hit 27 bombs before he became a consistent 40 Home Run guy for Cincinnati back in 2003. In that season Dunn had a hitting streak of 2 games or more 16 times. In those 16 streaks, Dunn hammered 23 of his 27 Home Runs.
As you can see Adam Dunn is a very streaky hitter. When Adam Dunn is hot, his bat turns into a club that can knock a ball 450 FT with ease. Last season with the White Sox he never got hot. If he did have a hot streak, the next one would come weeks later which always had him off his game. Now that there is a lot less pressure, a lot less expectations, and a player who came back when he could have easily hung it up after contemplating retirement a season ago. You know you are going to get a hungry Adam Dunn who will be looking to add to his 365 Home Run total at the age of 32. If Adam Dunn does not reach 500 Home Runs in his career I would personally be very shocked as he is one of the most consistent power players in this ERA of Major League Baseball.
The amazing thing about Dunn is, he only needs to hit .236 to knock out 40 long balls. So if he can get hot long enough, and raise that average from a year ago from .159 about .77 points. Which is less than 1 hit per 10 at bats. He can easily have a big bounce back season.
Adam Dunn’s ADP: 212
That is the 21st round of 10 team leagues. Make sure you grab him well before that so you don’t run the risk of losing on his potential. 40 Home Runs are easily within reach for power hitting monster, and you should not let him slip on draft day.
Fantasy Baseball Rankings from Beast Dome will be out soon.