Fantasy Football: Super Cam Sophomore Bust? (Cam Newton)

By Muntradamus

 

BEAST DOME NATION.
It is the 2nd round of your fantasy football draft.  The top 3 QBs of Brady, Rodgers, and Brees have been selected.  Two teams before you selected Matthew Stafford.  So now you have to decide.  Do I take a stud such as Rob Gronkowski, or do I secure my QB position with taking Cam Newton?  Will Cam Newton even live up to last seasons amazing rookie campaign?

 

WHY CAM WILL NOT SOPHOMORE BUST:

The Panthers were a 2 win team the season before they had Cam.  In one full season Cam turned the Panthers from the worst team, to a team that can win any week.  They finished with only 6 wins.  A big reason why they lost so many games was because their defense got injured early, and it stayed down.  Losing Jon Beason their star middle linebacker was a huge loss, especially in week 1 for the entire season.  The Panthers are now healthy on the defensive side, and they added Luke Kuechly in the 1st round who reminds me of Zach Thomas.  With the defense healthy and making plays, that should result in less T.O.P for the opponents.  Instead of only having three possessions a quarter with terrible field position.  Cam can find himself on the opponents side of the football to start drives.

The Panthers will be scoring more points this season with the shorter field.  On top of that there is no reason to believe Cam does not want to get better.  He is used to winning championships his entire life, and you know he will do what it takes to get back to that level.  Look for Newton to reach the next level of being an ELITE QB.  Not Fantasy wise, just being the perfect NFL QB.

 

WHY CAM WILL BUST:

 

The 14 TDs rushing were amazing last season.  So what do the Panthers do to put that number at stake.  How about bring in a goal-line vulture/TD machine Mike Tolbert.  He could be a decoy, but chances are Tolbert has at least 3 TDs.  Between Tolbert and the two headed monster of Jonathan Stewart, and DeAnglo Williams needing their TDs and touches.  Newton could be running less this season.

 

The Panthers also lost Jeremy Shockey who was a vital part of the passing game last season in the red zone.  To replace Shockey, they will probably just throw to Brandon LaFell more.  LaFell is good, but is he WR #2 good?

Probably not when you consider that QB options like Romo, Manning, Ryan, and Vick have two amazing WR options each.  Romo has three when you count Witten.
The Panthers defense will also keep teams from making the Panthers go into shootout mode on the scoreboard.  There will be some games where the Panthers simply kill the 4th quarter, that was never the case last season.

It also does not help that Steve Smith, his only real target is now 33 years old, for the record I do like Steve Smith to have a great season.  However I do like Greg Olsen to be a HUGE sleeper as possibly a guy who can put up surprise Aaron Hernandez numbers.

Cam Newton threw for over 215 Yards in a game only twice in the second half of last season.

 

FINAL VERDICT:

If you are drafting Newton so high, it is because of his rushing numbers.  Those rushing TDs will look to take a hit with Tolbert, however I think he can improve on his 21 passing TDs.  Though not by much.  I also see him taking a small hit in those passing yards not finishing for over 4,000.

I see Cam Newton being a great QB leading the Panthers to a lot of victories, but I do see him falling a bit in the Fantasy QB Rankings as a #7 prediction behind Matt Ryan seems a bit more realistic.  There is not enough to like him as a passer with his lack of options and the aging Steve Smith.  I would let Cam slip through the 2nd and 3rd round before taking him.

 

2012 PREDICTION for Cam Newton: 3600 PASSING YARDS. 25 TDs. 11 INT. 660 RUSHING YARDS. 10 TDs Rushing.

 

MUNTRADAMUS DEBATE:

Cam Newton vs. Matt Stafford: Calvin Johnson needs to get his numbers every week, Stafford will do that as he throws the ball around 50 times a game at times.  I want those pass attempts, give me Stafford.

Cam Newton vs. Michael Vick: Vick has the better WR options in Maclin and Desean Jackson.  Vick is the more proven QB, I will take him as he has the potential for consistent 40 Point games.

Cam Newton vs. Matt Ryan: Matt Ryan is the better QB, and the Falcons are done running the ball.  I will let someone else take Cam Newton in the 2nd round and wait for Matt Ryan in the 4th round.

Cam Newton vs. Tony Romo: Romo may have the WRs, but I like Cam Newton as a playmaker who can have those huge breakout games.  There will be weeks where Murray takes the load for the Cowboys leaving the passing game with nothing much.

Cam Newton vs. Eli Manning: No reason to not take the more versatile Newton over the inconsistent Eli Manning.  Manning will get his numbers, be he will BUST in the weeks you really need him.

Muntradamus is a Fantasy Sports Expert who specialize in Fantasy Football/Baseball/Basketball. He is currently in his first season as a Pro on FantasyPros where he is the only expert to have Adam Dunn, Mike Aviles, and Wilin Rosario in his top 20 at each position. Muntradamus not only leads many to championships with his great advice, and outlooks into the future. He is also consistently on the top of leaderboards in DraftStreet. In August he will compete in a $200K tournament that he qualified for of 40 people.