FANTASY BASEBALL 2016 IS THERE A BEAST INSIDE OF YU (YU DARVISH)
*FROM MUNTRADAMUS*
Nick built BEAST FRANCHISE with his own two hands to what it is today. If there is anyone who is associated with BEAST DOME and my personal life, Nick is probably the closest in the two worlds. He has seen all of my moves since 2012 and he is ready to take a piece of my mind and create his. I give you, Nick Wallace.
FANTASY BASEBALL 2016
IS THERE A BEAST INSIDE OF YU
(YU DARVISH)
By Nick Wallace
This is my first post here on Beastdome. I am thankful that Muntradamus is allowing me to write articles now! Throughout the season I will be giving you all some great Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire pickups to help you win your league. I hope to offer a complimentary take to fantasy baseball along with Munt and the other writers here. Now for the article!
My BEAST pitching pick of the year is Yu Darvish and here is why. Will Yu be the best pitcher in the league? Probably not. Should you pick him in the first round? NO. Yu Darvish is coming off of Tommy John surgery and is scheduled to be back in the swing of things in late May. He is currently scheduled for 20 starts this season. My prediction is he wins 15-18 games out of 20. If he is able to get > 20 starts he will get a 20 win season. I have done a ton of research on pitchers returning from Tommy John surgery and here is my analysis on some of the recent pitchers who are of the Darvish caliber.
| Name | Season | GS | IP | K/9 | ERA | FIP | xFIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Harvey | 2013 | 26 | 178.1 | 9.64 | 2.27 | 2.00 | 2.63 |
| 2015 | 24 | 160.0 | 8.38 | 2.48 | 3.34 | 3.38 | |
| Matt Moore | 2013 | 27 | 150.1 | 8.56 | 3.29 | 3.95 | 4.32 |
| 2014 | 2 | 10.0 | 5.40 | 2.70 | 4.73 | 4.54 | |
| 2015 | 6 | 26.2 | 5.74 | 8.78 | 5.61 | 5.77 | |
| Jose Fernandez | 2013 | 28 | 172.2 | 9.75 | 2.19 | 2.73 | 3.08 |
| 2014 | 8 | 51.2 | 12.19 | 2.44 | 2.18 | 2.18 | |
| 2015 | 7 | 43.0 | 11.09 | 2.30 | 1.74 | 2.48 | |
| Patrick Corbin | 2013 | 32 | 208.1 | 7.69 | 3.41 | 3.43 | 3.48 |
| 2015 | 11 | 56.1 | 6.06 | 3.67 | 4.02 | 3.18 |
The most revered aspect of pitching these days according to the Sabremetrics people is K/9 and IP along with ERA. For those not familiar with these stats I will explain. K/9 is strike-outs per 9 innings. IP is Innings Pitched and ERA is Earned Run Average. You want a low ERA (anything under 3 is an ace), you want anything above an 8 for K/9 and you want about a 6 or higher for IP. You can clearly see all of these guys killed it after they returned from Tommy John surgery. Especially the first year back! Before Yu started having issues with his elbow he was on fire as a pitcher. Unfortunately he didn’t have an offense to help him win the games. This season though, the Rangers will have great offense. They are actually my sleeper pick to win the West again and beat out the Astros. Their pitching staff is going to be a monster with Darvish, Hamels, Lewis, Holland and Perez along with that lights out fantastic bullpen.
As for where to draft Yu, I would look to draft him after the 10th round. Sure for the first month or two he will sit in the DL spot, but he will be a lights out pitcher for you and will give you a great K/9 and ERA to help your rotation. If for some reason he goes before that another great ranger sleeper option is Martin Perez.
PrediCtIon
K/9: 10.65
ERA: 2.58
Wins: 17
How can you possibly predict 17 wins for someone expected to get 20 starts? That’s the equivalent of a 27 win season for a pitcher making a full season’s starts. Plus even if he doesn’t have setbacks he’s not likely to pitch deep into games.
From Muntradamus.
I do agree with you that 17 wins is bold, but if Yu is healthy, then Yu should be favored to win just about every matchup he has.
A better statistic than 17 wins would be 17 QS. Yu always has a chance for the win, but you are correct about the fact he will likely not pitch deep into games.
The Rangers have already said they are not going to limit him. The offense this season for the Rangers is going to be 10000x better than last year and the year before that. Yu never really had a good offense behind him to solidify the wins.
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