Muntradamus Week 14 in Review 93% Success Rate.
Another Great week picking players. Out of my 15 Tiers I scored 50% or higher in 14 of the Tiers. That’s a success rate of (14/15) 93%.
Out of 22 ranked QBs 16 were correct= 73% correct.
Out of 36 ranked RBs 24 were correct= 67% correct.
Out of 48 ranked WRs 33 were correct= 69% correct.
Out of 17 ranked TEs 7 were correct= 41% correct.
Out of 20 ranked Kickers 17 were correct= 85% correct.
Out of 15 ranked defenses 11 were correct= 73% correct.
Out of 158 ranked Players 98 were correct= 62% correct.
Best Calls of the Week That Experts on other sites didn’t see coming:
- Ranking Julio Jones as the #17 WR and a tier 1 player. Julio busted out in a big way, 100 Yards 2 TDs.
- Steven Haushka as the Sleeper kicker of the week. He ended up with 3 FGs and the #3 Kicker.
- Ranking Lions, Jaguars, Chargers as Top 10 Defenses.
- Sebastian Janikowski as bust kicker of the week. Only 2 extra points.
Now onto the actual rankings. Week 14 was a pivotal week in most leagues and if you listened to my advice, your week should of turned for the best.
Blue is Good Call
Red is Bad Call
A good call is based off of my analysis, how other experts ranked various players on other sites, and if the player finished with a good game and was ranked appropriately, or a bad game and was ranked appropriately.
If a player is injured he doesn’t count towards a good game. He will be marked with “***” if injured.
1st QB: 28 points.
10th QB: 22 points.
20th QB: 15 points.
Start of the week: Philip Rivers, 3 TDs had a good game.
Bust of the week: Ben Roethlisberger, 280 Yards 2 TD. He’s amazing coming back from that ankle injury. Surprise of the week: Rex Grossman. 250+ yards, 2 TD, that’s a good game in Rex Grossmans book.
Tier 1- Start’em if you have them. You can’t go wrong.
Good Calls%= 100%
1.Aaron Rodgers vs Oakland- #13 (19 points) Rodgers could have had more had Finley caught his TD. Still a top 15 play 290 Yards 2 TDs. Not a bad game, not an Aaron Rodgers game.
2. Drew Brees @ Titans- #11 QB(21 points) Drew Brees didn’t get going until the 4th quarter and he still ended up with over 20 points.
3. Tom Brady @ Washington- # 4 QB (26 points) Brady was his usual self playing in shot gun the entire game. He should have had more TDs if not for bad breaks.
4. Cam Newton vs Atlanta- #10 QB (22 points) Cam had a good game despite not running in a TD. 20+ is nothing to complain about.
5. Matt Stafford vs Minnesota- #16 QB (17 points) Stafford was off to a blistering start with 2 first quarter TDs. After that he became useless. It’s not like he killed your team, he just didn’t dominate it.
6. Philip Rivers vs Bills- #11 QB (21 points) He threw for 3 TDs. You can’t ask for much more than that.
7. Tony Romo vs NYG- #1 QB (28 points) #1 QB ranked in the #1 tier.
8. Matt Ryan @ Carolina- #1 QB (28 points) #1 QB ranked in the # 1 tier.
Tier 2- Could put up great numbers, could also let you down big time.
9. Mike Vick @ Miami- #23 QB (12 points) Vick wasn’t Vick but he still lead his team to a victory. One more TD would have been nice.
10. Carson Palmer vs GB- #21 QB (14 points) Carson sucked and if INT’s counted against you than he is a lot further down on this list. He clearly needs a better WR on the field.
11. Rex Grossman vs New England- #15 QB (18 points) Grossman had a top 20 performance and that’s enough for Rex in one week.
12. Eli Manning @ Dallas- #6 QB (24 points) He was ranked as the #12 QB on my list and could have had a better game. His WR’s are so dynamic he’s a good start every week.
13. Joe Flacco vs Colts- #17 QB (17 points) Joey had a good game getting 2 TDs. It’s not like you can expect 3..
***14. Matt Hasselbeck vs Saints- Got injured.
***15. Matt Moore vs Eagles- Got injured.
16. Tavarias Jackson vs STL- # 23 QB (12 points). Tavaris is not startable.
Tier 3- Good luck..The odds are against you.
17. Tim Tebow @ Chicago- #16 QB (17 points) Tebow was amazing again.
18. Ryan Fitzpatrick @ SD- #25 QB (9 points) Fitzpatrick was terrible. Hopefully you didn’t have to use him.
19. Ben Roethlisberger vs Cleveland- #13 QB (19 points) Take away a 80 yard TD when they were trying to kill the clock and Big Ben has a bad game. Still ranked him as a top 20 QB.
20. Calieb Haine vs Denver- #33 QB (5 points) Haine is really bad.
#21. Andy Dalton vs Houston- #24 QB (11 points) Dalton was worthless against a tough Texans defense.
#22. Mark Sanchez vs KC- #3 QB (27 points) Sanchez was a manimal stealing all of Greene’s TDs. 4 TD’s total for Mark.
#23. Alex Smith @ AZ- #30 QB (7 points) He proved he has no quality in fantasy leagues.
#24. Kevin Kolb vs SF- Injured.
1st RB: 37 Points
10th RB: 16 Points
20th RB: 9 Points
Start of the week: Rashard Mendenhall– All of his yards came in the 3rd quarter. 7 points wasn’t enough and he got stuffed at the goal line 4 times in a row.
Bust of the week: Beanie Wells– Beanie was nothing getting 2 points.
Surprise of the week: CJ Spiller– The Bills just fell behind and couldn’t get anything going on offense. Only 5 points.
Tier 1- Make sure you got a good seat, and get ready for the TDs.
Good Call%= 67%
#1. Ray Rice vs Colts- # 5 RB (20 points) Typical Ray Rice game.
#2 .Maurice Jones Drew vs Tampa Bay- #1 RB (37 Points) Saw this one coming from a mile away.
# 3. Arian Foster @ Cincinatti- #25 RB (7 Points) He had a rough game against the Bengals. Tate was better.
#4. Michael Turner @ Carolina- #25 RB (7 Points) Also a poor performance from the veteran. Matt Ryan stole all the TDs.
#5. Marshawn Lynch vs St.Louis- #9 RB (17 Points) Marshawn was in beast mode for Monday Night. No surprise.
#6. Rashard Mendenhall vs Cleveland- #25 RB (7 Points) Stuffed at the goal line 4 times in a row. SMH.
#7. Chris Johnson vs Saints- #28 RB (6 Points) Typical CJ to just crumble after doing so well.
#8. Roy Helu vs New England- #17 RB (12 Points) Helu delivered on his promise of 100 total yards.
#9. Reggie Bush vs Eagles- #17 RB (12 Points) Reggie also fulfilled his promise of 100 total yards.
#10. Ryan Matthews vs Buffalo- #11 RB (14 Points) Matthews ran all over Buffalo. Too bad no TD.
#11. LeSean McCoy @ Miami- #7 RB (18 Points) LeSean picking up 2 cheapie TDs. The yards weren’t there but it didn’t matter.
#12. Michael Bush @ GB- #11 RB (14 Points) Bush put together a solid game despite getting blown out finding the end zone.
***#13. DeMarrco Murray vs NYG- Injured.
Tier 2- All these guys should be solid RB2’s some even have the quality to play as a RB1. You’re good if you are starting one of these guys.
Good Call%= 56%
#14. Steven Jackson vs Seattle- #7 RB (18 Points) S-Jax had a great game and scored the TD that the Rams got. Like I predicted.
#15. CJ Spiller @ SD- #30+ RB (5 Points) Spiller was awful. The Bills were awful.
***#16. Maurice Morris vs Minnesota- Injured.
#17. Willis McGahee vs Chicago- #30+ RB (3 Points) Willis had no running room proving the Bears run D to be top notch.
#18. LeGarrette Blount @ Jacksonville- #14 RB (13 Points) Blount found the end zone and then was phased out of the game in the second half with Jacksonville dominating.
#19. Benjarvus Green-Ellis @ Washington- #30+ RB (1 Point) No running in New Englands game plan this week.
#20. Marion Barber @ Denver- #6 RB (19 Points) Barber looked great but may have fumbled away any chance of being a fantasy starter.
#21 Frank Gore @ Arizona- #14 RB (13 Points) Still a top 25 RB predicted Gore saved his day on one long run.
***#22 Ahmad Bradshaw @ Dallas- Suspended in the first half. Had I known that Bradshaw would have not been recommended at all.
#23/ #24.Sproles/Thomas @ Titans- Sproles #21 RB (8 Points) Thomas #30 5 Points. Both RBs were pretty close to my rankings. Neither found the endzone and didn’t put up enough of a game.
Tier 3- You can play these guys, but it’s going to take a lot of good breaks for them to be useful.
#25. Shnnon Greene vs KC- #2 RB (23 Points) Greene was solid and he found the end zone again, 4th time in 2 games. He’s on fire. Should of ranked him higher in the top 20.
#26 Mike Tolbert vs Buffalo- #21 RB (8 Points) Tolbert found the end zone and that’s all you could hope for.
#27 Cedric Benson vs Houston- #20 RB (9 Points) Cedric ran well against a tough Texans D. One long run game his a more manageable game.
#28Beanie Wells vs SF- The thing about Beanie is he could have a terrible week, but once they get inside that 10 yard line he is a beast. Though SF hasn’t allowed a rushing TD all season, I don’t see the Cardinals presenting more than 1 opportunity at most for Beanie this week, I would bench him. I do like the fact he is guaranteed 15+ touches though. 49ers #1 vs RBs.
#29 Ryan Grant vs Oakland- For now I’m going to expect Starks to miss this game and let Grant run over one of the worst run defenses in the NFL. Only problem is the Packers run the ball less than 15 times a game total, but if it’s all Ryan Grant this week, I would bump him up to a quality RB2. Raiders #26 vs RBs.
#30 Jonathan Stewart vs Atlanta- J-Stew is usually the Panther RB to own when the Panthers are going to lose a game or it’s going to be competitive. It was nice to see him in the end zone in week 13, but 80 total yards is a realistic goal this week vs ATL. Falcons #5 vs RBs.
#31 Toby Gerhart vs Detroit- Despite the start Gerhart isn’t a great fantasy option. Minnesota should be behind all game which will force them to be a throw 1st, throw 2nd, and 3rd type of team. Gerhart could get 60 yards but his day will really count on A) a huge few plays. B) Finding a goal line TD. Hopefully you have better options. Lions #9 vs RBs.
#32 Peyton Hillis @ Pittsburgh- There is no way Peyton puts up a respectable game against Pittsburgh in Pittsburgh, if you’re desperate you’re soley playing him on volume rather than quality. Steelers #6 vs RBs.
#33 DeAnglo Williams vs Atlanta- D.Will is a completely different back when the Panthers win or score 25+ points. Well Atlanta is one of the best run defenses in the NFL so I’m not going to take my chances. Falcons #5 vs RBs.
#34 Brandon Jacobs @ Dallas- Dallas is tough against the run, and Jacobs really only is helpful in fantasy if he gets the goal line TD. If you’re feeling lucky than roll the dice on him, 4-11 points is the standard. Cowboys #9 vs RBs.
#35 Daniel Thomas vs Eagles- Nothing
#36 Javon Ringer vs Saints- Nothing
#37 Thomas Jones @ Jets- Nothing
#38 Kahlil Bell @ Denver- 6 Points decent enough and should be starting next week for Barber.
#39 Donald Brown vs Ravens- You cannot start Donald Brown this week. Despite rushing for TDs in back-to-back games D.Brown now faces Baltimore, do I have to explain anything more? Ravens #4 vs RBs.
1st WR: 28 points
10th WR: 15 points
20th WR: 12 Points
Start of the week: Steve Smith– He ended up with 120 receiving yards. I would call that a good game.
Bust of the week: Brandon Lloyd– Less than 85 yards, Lloyd had to be disappointed he did average. Wouldn’t say bust of the week, but wouldn’t say good week.
Surprise of the week: Santana Moss– TD and 80+ yards. Should have had two of them had one not got called back.
Tier 1- If you have them, play them and expect a solid game with the chance for greatness.
Good Call %=69%
#1 Calvin Johnson vs Minnesota- The Saints came in with a gameplan to shut down Calvin Johnson and give up everything to everyone else. The Saints ended up winning that game, maybe teams are going to start taking notice. But for now continue to start the best WR with no hesitation .
#2 Steve Smith vs Atlanta- Atlanta cannot cover #1 WRs. This trend has been going all year, but look at the past 3 weeks. Nate Washington 100+ yards 2 TDs, Percy Harvin 100+ yards 1 TD, Andre Johnson 90+ yards before leaving in the 3rd quarter. Steve Smith is a must start player in what could be his breakout performance. Talib is a tough corner for TB and that’s how I explain the bad game for Steve Smith in week 13.
#3 Vincent Jackson vs Buffalo- When Vincent Jackson has a good matchup, you have to play Vincent Jackson. He can put up 3 TDs or 200 yards, and this week Buffalo is terrible against the pass and V-Jax should be running around open all day. If I owned Jackson I would be very, very excited for Sunday.
#4 Victor Cruz @ Dallas- He’s the best WR in the NFL in fantasy since week 5. Always a solid bet for 100 yards, if this game becomes a shootout than Cruz will cruise you onto the playoffs.
***# 5 Greg Jennings vs Oakland- Jennings will be open all day against Oaklands terrible secondary. I like Jennings to find the end zone again this week, last weeks TD should not have counted. The only problem with Jennings is the Marques Colston effect. So many options, so few targets.
#6 Percy Harvin @ Detroit- The Lions are going to be scoring points and someone will have to make plays down the field for Minnesota to stay competitive. When that happens Harvin tends to have a big game, and he should create mismatches wherever he lines up. If Adrian Peterson plays I think it only helps Harvin as defenses can’t key in on him.
#7 Roddy White @ Carolina- Atlanta is going to be moving the ball all game, and they are going to be putting up points. When that usually happens, White tends to have a big game and I would not expect anything less. Chris Gamble will be guarding him, but that still doesn’t mean he will shut him out all day.
#8 Hakeem Nicks @ Dallas- Cruz is so good that defenses are allowing Nicks to be 1 on 1. That can’t continue to happen as Nicks is just too talented. No matter what defense he faces as long as Cruz is on the field, Nicks is a must start WR.
#9 Anquan Boldin vs Indy- Boldin has been too quiet lately. Not because of him, but because of his matchups. This week Indy struggles against big physical WRs since all of their corners are nickel backs at best. I like Boldin to get back on track and have a huge game against a weak Indy secondary.
#10 Wes Welker @ Washington- Who knows whose going to guard him, or how they’re going to guard him. But Welker is like a 3rd down running back who always gets open for the 5 yard dump pass over the middle. He should find ways to continue his successful season against a Washington team that will be on its heels.
#11 Brandon Marshall vs Eagles- If Nandi is out, which he should be. Marshall should take advantage of a very thin Eagle secondary. It would be nice to see Marshall break out for that 2 TD game one of these weeks, maybe this will be it, his talent is too good to bench.
#12 Dez Bryant vs Giants- Despite all WR’s being healthy, Dez looks to be Romos man once again. He was favored in the passing game heavily this week and I look for that trend to continue despite Miles coming back. Dez is the Cowboy receiver to own.
#13 Mike Wallace vs Cleveland- Wallace has speed that nobody can stick with. Even Joe Haden. Wallace will have to put up his points in the first half as I don’t expect a lot of pass attempts in the second half. He only needs a couple targets for a big game anyways.
#14 Jordy Nelson vs Oakland- Jordy just makes the big plays week after week after week. I like him to bounce back and find the end zone again, this matchup really bodes well for him as Oakland has been decent against #1 WRs but very weak vs #2s.
#15 Larry Fitzgerald vs SF- The matchup is terrible, and the Cardinals could get shut out. But the most talented WR in the NFL can make anything happen on any given Sunday, and that reason alone makes Fitzgerald a Tier 1 WR every single week. Even if I threw the ball for AZ, Fitz could still get a TD.
#16 Stevie Johnson @ SD- Buffalo should fall behind in this game, and with that being the case Stevie usually gets his targets. He’s always a solid bet because he is so heavily thrown to every single game, and always has a chance for that TD.
#17 Julio Jones @ Carolina- I am promoting Jones to 1st tier even though he has done nothing and been hurt for the past month. The reason I am promoting him is because he is their deep threat in a game against a team that will be focusing on stopping Michael Turner, Roddy White and Tony Gonzales they will leave the big plays open all day. Start Julio Jones this week.
Tier 2- All these guys could put up big games, but there’s something standing in their way.
#18 Marques Colston @ Titans- Finnegan will probably be guarding Colston which should last only a couple possessions before Lance Moore or Meachem start making plays. Colston ranks so high because he is the #1 WR with the #1 QB, if Brees didn’t have so many playmakers Colston would be Tier 1. I expect north of 80 yards again for Colston, hopefully he gets that TD.
#19 Santana Moss vs New Engalnd- With Fred Davis out, Moss will be asked to go back to his days of 100 yards and a TD against a NE secondary that can’t deal with speedy WRs. Washington will be losing in this one and I like Moss to pick up a lot of garbage yards. In many cases I would recommend him as a sleeper of the week candidate.
#20 AJ Green vs Houston- Green is close to must start, his talent level is exceptional, I just wouldn’t expect that huge of a game against Houston who will be killing clock every possession. On top of that Jonathan Joseph, one of the top corners will be on Green all day.
#21 Miles Austin vs NYG- The thing about Austin is he is the most explosive WR after the catch. Someone with his capabilities only needs a few targets to have a big game, and that is why despite coming back this week. I think he will be ready to take off where he left off. Remember that 3 TD game against SF earlier this season..
#22 Dwayne Bowe @ NYJ- Even though Bowe faces Revis island, it’s still Dwayne Bowe. I’m not expecting a big game, but I’m also not expecting Revis to shut down Bowe entirely. He is a lot bigger and stronger than Revis and the Chiefs can’t win without him.
#23 Brandon Lloyd @ Seattle- The Seahawks have big physical corners. Lloyd is agile and athletic. If I were to bet on it, I would like Lloyd to burn Seattle for a couple big plays. It depends whose QBing, come back throughout the week for details.
#24 Derrius Heyward-Bey @ GB- For now I’m going to list Moore and Ford out, and with that being the case DHB gets the best matchup a fantasy WR can ask for. Oakland should be passing all game, and DHB is the only WR who actually has some background for announcers to talk about. Stay tuned as I update his value as the week continues. Moore and Ford are officially ruled out.
#25 Jonny Knox vs Denver- A matchup in what Knox can exploit. The Broncos had trouble finding speedy Percy Harvin on the field, 150+yards 2 TDs. There’s no reason the exact same type of player in an offense that will be missing it’s best player, Matt Forte, will not be trying to find their best playmaker not named Devin Hester.
#26 Jeremy Maclin @ Miami- It’s great that Maclin is coming back (90% likely) the same week as Vick. Neither got use to anyone else running the same routes, or the different timing so they should be on the same page. But do I want to risk that coming into a pivotal week 14 matchup against a Hot Dolphins defense. No thank you.
#27Pierre Garcon vs Baltimore- Garcon will be getting his points in garbage time this week. It happened against NE in week 13, and it could of happened in week 12 vs Carolina if he didn’t drop a couple of scores. Baltimore will be blowing them out in the second half so look for Garcon to build off of his 150 yard 2 TD performance.
#28 Antonio Brown vs Cleveland- Maybe the #1 WR on Pittsburgh in reality, Brown has the chance to take advantage of his matchup if Haden linesup vs Wallace. I like Brown to reach 75 yards with the chance to score. Only problem is it’s going to have to be in the 1st half.
#29 Laurent Robinson vs NYG- All great things come to an end sometime. Robinson carried many owners down the middle of the season. If you were lucky to have him, send him a thank you. But for now he can go back to your bench in most leagues with Austin returning. He still will get his looks, but the 3rd WR is not a favorable player with the decrease in volume.
#30 Michael Crabtree @ Arizona- Patrick Patterson showed he’s going to be an elite CB in the NFL. If Dez Bryant wasn’t so amazing, Patterson would have shut him out completely. I don’t like the matchup, but I do like that Crab is playing the Cardinals which makes him startable, since as a whole the defense is a middle tier unit at best.
#31 Eric Decker @ Chicago- Decker was a disappointment this week, but he is the #1 option in the passing game and will continue to get his targets. Now with defenses also having to respect Dem Thomas I would expect Decker to start getting open again.
***#32 Deion Branch @ Washington- Branch is too inconsistent to trust, the matchups are always right for him since they don’t really guard him. It’s just a matter of how many targets Tom Brady wants to give him. If you have safer options go with them, if you’re feeling lucky go with Branch.
#33 Malcolm Floyd vs Buffalo- Floyd looks like he got his #2 WR spot job quickly after his long bomb TD Monday Night. I would start Floyd with confidence if I had to use him this week, Rivers should have a monster performance.
#34 Jabar Gaffney vs New England- I’m going to list Gaffney as a playable option this week because Washington will be throwing the ball all second half which should lead to targets. Gaffney has a chance for a TD in this one as it gets ugly before halftime. Someone has to step up for Fred Davis.
# 35 Damian Williams vs Saints- I don’t trust Williams anymore, the Titans have so many options and they are now a run first, run second, and run third team. The Titans will be throwing from behind so garbage time will be key for Damian Williams. I’m now ranking Williams as if Washington won’t play. Washington is going to play, but I will leave the rankings as is.
Tier 3- You can start them. But you will most likely be disappointed.
Good Call%= 66%
#36 Reggie Wayne vs Baltimore- As soon as you get excited about Wayne he lets you down. With a tough matchup, I’m not going to count on him for anything. Garcon is the big play WR and those are the type that tend to get the garbage time numbers, at least the TDs. Wayne should be good for 6 receptions as Indy throws all second half.
#37 Santonio Holmes vs KC- I don’t like Sanchez this week, and I can’t recommend Holmes in this matchup. Maybe Sanchez throws for a TD and 200 yards, and I expect Plaxico to get that TD over Holmes. Though Holmes is safer.
#38 Golden Tate vs STL- Tate maybe the closest thing Seattle has to a #1 WR, STL is maybe the closest thing to a college defense. If you want to watch a WR on Monday Night and you’re struggling at the position. Sure why not? He scored last week and looks to be a better bet than Doug Baldwin at this point.
#39 Desean Jackson @ Miami- D-Jax has to be happy to see Vick coming back this week. Jackson has been on everyone’s bad side in fantasy since his terrible Monday Night game against the Bears earlier this season. What will the next chapter write for D-Jax? Can it get much worse?
#40 Nate Buerlson vs Minnesota- Nate should be great against a Vikings team that can stop the run, but will give up big plays in the air. Demaryius Thomas just had 144 yards and 2 TDs as the #2 WR. Buerlson could be a nice sleeper pick in deep leagues.
#41 Lance Moore @ Titans- Once again Moore finds the end zone, he is the Wes Welker Drew Brees wishes he had, but doesn’t really need. If Moore can do a lot with his few targets than Moore should put up a serviceable fantasy game.
#42 Steve Breaston @ NYJ- Maybe with Bowe being covered by Revis island, Breaston will get a chance to rack up a cheap 6 receptions. He’s only good in PPR leagues.
#43 Torrey Smith vs Indy- Smith thrives in games where defenses have to stack the box to help support the run. If that’s the case, which it should be than Torrey has the chance to bust a deep one. Lee Evans is back however and that is why I wouldn’t use Smith with confidence. Too risky.
#44 Nate Washington vs Saints- Nate has been the sign of inconsistency from the WR spot all season. This week Tennessee will have to throw the ball to catch up with the high scoring Saints. With that being the case I like Washington to get back to his respectable numbers and perhaps find the end zone. One of these weeks he will be back. Might not play, he hasn’t practiced all week. He’s playing I don’t think he will be near 100%.
#45 Plaxico Burress vs Kansas City- Plax will be plax, either a TD or 40 yards. He’s almost like a TE at the WR spot, and I don’t like his odds when Sanchez is due for a bad performance.
#46 David Nelson @ SD- Nelson is Plaxico version 0.5. Same type of player, puts up TE numbers and is only good if he gets in the end zone. He is heavily targeted in that area, and came 1 yard away last week.
#47 Robert Meachem @ Titans- As soon as you put Meachem in your lineup, you already know what’s going to happen. Maybe 1 catch hopefully 2, but more realistic 0. He is too dicey of a play and is only left for the very deep leagues, despite the home run ability.
#48 James Jones vs Oakland- I lost some faith in Jones while watching Driver haul in 2 TDs this week. I like Jones for the desperate owner that hopes 1 catch is all it takes for him to have a good game.
#49 Demariyus Thomas vs Chicago- Just when you think he’s got it all, he will let you down. Going into a low scoring game against Chicago, I would not risk playing Thomas at all.
#50 Andre Roberts vs SF- The good news for Roberts is I’m listing him here instead of Early D. Roberts is the #2 WR for Kevin Kolb. Against SF, you cannot start him.
1st TE: 28 Points
10th TE: 8 Points
20th TE: 5 Points
Start of the week: JerMichael Finley– 0 catches and he dropped a TD.
Bust of the week: Dustin Keller– Did Nothing, less than 3 points good pick.
Surprise of the week: Jared Cook– Pulled a Finley with 0 catches.
Tier 1- Great to get a close guaranteed 10+ points game from your TE.
Good Call%= 50%
#1. Rob Gronkowski @ Washington- No matter what, defenses can’t focus on Gronk. The Patriots have too many weapons and Gronk always shows up when they get near the red zone. Having Gronkowski this year has saved many fantasy teams.
#2. Jimmy Graham @ Titans- The Titans know that Graham is going to get a lot of balls thrown his way. And there is nothing the Titans will be able to do about it, Graham is a matchup nightmare for any defense and it’s hard enough to remember to guard all of their speedy WRs and multi dimensional backs in the backfield. Should be another great game for Graham.
#3. Antonio Gates vs Buffalo- Rivers will have a field day, that usually results in at least 70+ yards for Gates. Let’s see those TDs!
#4. Jason Witten vs NYG- All of a sudden the Giants have sucked against good TEs. Graham 2 TD’s two weeks ago, and now Finley just had a good game. I like Witten to continue the trend as he is just too solid, and with all the Dallas play-makers back. He may be running down the field open as ever.
#5. Tony Gonzales @ Carolina- Carolina will have it’s hands full and Tony should be able to operate in the middle however he wants it. It was impressive enough that Gonzales put up 100 yards against Houston is one of the top defenses in stopping the TE.
#6. JerMichael Finley vs Oakland- He’s backkk. At least for now, and facing Oakland in week 14 is just what his fantasy owners ordered. I like him to get his TD streak going as he finds paydirt again against a Raider D that will be overwhelmed.
#7. Aaron Hernandez @ Washington- Despite not finding the end zone for a while, it’s too hard to bet against a TE for Tom Brady that’s getting 4-7 catches a game. Will he find the end zone, I hope so. But if he doesn’t he should be good for 60 yards and is great for PPR leagues.
#8.Vernon Davis @ AZ- Davis already had a big game against Arizona a few weeks ago, and could have had another big game if he didn’t drop a 40 yard TD. Vernon Davis is good when he doesn’t have to block, and he doesn’t have to block this game so go ahead and use the best tool on the 49ers.
Tier 2- You can only hope they do something.
#9. Brandon Pettigrew vs Minnesota- Pettigrew could be in for a nice game against the Vikings as they focus extra attention Calvin Johnson. The consistency hasn’t really been there this season, which makes him a Tier 2 player at best.
#10. Jared Cook vs Saints- Not a bad week to be a sleeper in a game where he will be very active against a prevent defense in the second half. He could be able to rack up at least 5 receptions in this game against a soft Saints.
#11. Anthony Fasano vs Eagles- Fasano has been pretty decent as of late and even had a nice 60 yards vs Oakland. He could find that cheap TD and if you just lost Fred Davis, Fasano would be a great fill for the time being.
#12. Dustin Keller vs KC- After playing his best football for the past two weeks, Keller comes back to life. KC should prevent Sanchez from having some big plays, maybe Keller can be the beneficiary of a red zone TD.
#13. Jake Ballard @ Dallas- All of a sudden Jake is performing like the TE we expected him to be. Nothing more than 50 yards, mediocre at best, and will only be a factor out of sheer luck. I would rather use a more athletic big time TE like Cook this week.
#14. Brent Celek @ Miami- Celek has been too inconsistent to trust. If you are in a must win game this week, I hope you have better matchups as Celek is just one of many, many targets Vick will throw to. I don’t like Celeks size matchup vs Dolphin LB’ers.
#15. Ed Dickson vs Indy- When you think Ed is going to do something, he usually doesn’t. So why would it change now? Gronk just had 3 total TDs against Indy maybe the Ravens will see something that will allow Dickson to find the end zone as well.
#16. Kyle Rudolph @ Detroit- Rudolph is a great red zone target with his huge 6’7 frame. He’s shaping up to be the #2 option in the passing game after Harvin.
#17. Heath Miller vs Cleveland- He could be a good bet for a cheap TD. But if he doesn’t get that cheap TD don’t expect more than an average game at best on a cold blowout night.
1st Kicker: 19 Points
10th Kicker: 10 Points
20th Kicker: 6 Points
Start of the week: Jason Hanson-Top 10 performance, that’s good enough.
Bust of the week: Sebastian Janikowski– Only 2 Extra Points. Good pick.
Surprise of the week: Steven Hauschka– 3 FGs and a top 5 kicker for the week.
Tier 1- Start these guys, you know their offense is going to be putting up points and they will win you your week.
#1. David Akers @ Arizona- The 49ers are built for Akers to succeed, they always settle for FG attempts since Alex Smith would rather do the safe play than make magic happen.
#2. Stephen Gostowski @ Washington- If Washington can stop Brady in the red zone than Gostowski could have a field day. I like him this week.
#3. John Kasay @ Tennessee- The Saints will be scoring at will, hopefully Kasay can join the party.
#4. Mason Crosby vs Oakland- Same goes for Crosby, I’m pretty sure GB will score a TD in every red zone trip vs a terrible Oakland D.
#5. Nick Novak vs Buffalo- SD will also be moving the ball nicely, it’s a good week for kickers.
#6. Matt Bryant @ Carolina- I like Bryant to bounce back from his 1 FG game against a Carolina defense that will be outmatched all game.
#7. Jason Hanson @ Minnesota- Gotta love having a kicker that kicks in doors this type of the season. Detroit will be moving the ball against the #31 pass defense, Hanson should get his FGs.
Tier 2- Most of these guys are solid, but there’s something in their way.
Good Call= 77%
***#8. Josh Scobee vs Tampa Bay- I like Scobee to be ready often as the Bucs will have problems with MJD all day, but when they get near the red zone you know there will be extra attention on MJD which could lead to lots of FGs which makes me have Scobee as the #1 kicker this week.
#9. Billy Cundiff vs Indy- I’m going to rank Cundiff top tier again. Baltimore will be in the red zone all day, and they usually tend to get stopped in that area as well. Cundiff needs to make his FGs this week, he’s been very shaky.
#10. Sebastian Janikowski @ GB- You don’t beat GB kicking FGs, Oakland knows that and if they trail early in this one, Janikowski could leave you very disappointed.
#11. Lawrence Tynes @ Dallas- Playing in doors at this time of the year..it’s such an advantage. Dallas is going to be scoring points, New York should be scoring points, expect the Dallas D to get tough in the red zone. This could lead to a nice game for Tynes.
#12.Dan Bailey vs NYG- I could see him ending up with a few FG attempts, but I could also see this be a game filled with more TDs than FGs. If I had safer options that will be moving the ball more, I would go with them.
#13. Dan Carpenter vs Eagles- Carpenter should be busy as the Dolphins “should” beat on the Eagles. Though you can’t predict what Eagles team you’re going to see, so if you have safer options it wouldn’t hurt to go with those.
#14. Olindo Mare vs ATL- Mare was solid this week, and with ATL being good against the run, it could be a great situation for Mare to rack up more FGs in one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL.
#15. Steven Hauschka vs STL- Monday Night the Seahawks are going to be playing like a super bowl team. I expect them to be in the red zone whenever they want which should lead to lots of FG attempts making Hauschka my sleeper of the week for the position.
#16. Matt Prater vs Chicago- Prater could see lots of attempts, but I expect Tebow to be grounded this game which won’t allow for a lot of trips to the red zone for Prater.
#17. Robbie Gould @ Denver- The mile high wind will be there for Gould this week, but the Bears offense is so bad who knows how often they are going to be driving the ball. I would go for safer options this week.
#18. Neil Rackers @ Cincinnati- The Texans should be moving the ball on the ground all game, but this does have low scoring affair written all over it. Which could lead to opportunities for Rackers but it could also limit chances in Bengals territory throughout the game.
#19. Conor Barth @ Jacksonville- After a 20 point performance, Jacksonville should present a tougher defense to move the ball on. If Freeman comes back, you could do a lot worse than using Barth this week.
#20. Shaun Shuisham vs Cleveland- Pittsburgh will dominate this game, start to finish. Shuisham should get his FG attempts, hopefully he can kick on tough Heinz Field so far this season at home he is 8/12.
#21. Nick Folk vs KC- I don’t particularly like him this week because I don’t like Sanchez, but if the Jets are going to score it’s probably going to be because of this guy.
1st D/ST: 25 Points
10th D/ST: 10 Points
20th D/ST: 7 Points
Start of the Week: Pittsburgh Steelers– Top 15, stil I wouldn’t consider that the Start of the Week.
Bust of the Week: Chicago Bears– 20th Defense of the week, that’s bad for Chicago.
Surprise of the Week: Seattle Seahawks– #7 Defense is always a good thing for the Seattle Seahawks.
Tier 1- Feel good if you have the option to start one of these defenses.
Good Call%= 66%
#1. Pittsburgh vs Cleveland- Must Start. Cleveland has no offense, expect Pittsburgh to take all the time off the clock forcing Cleveland to throw the ball down the field more than they would like to.
#2. Ravens vs Indy- The Colts offense is terrible and only looked good in garbage time against a bottom 5% defense in NE. The Ravens are also a top 3 defensive unit to begin with. Should be a great game.
#3. 49ers @ Arizona- Kevin Kolb is a terrible QB and Beanie Wells will be completely ineffective against the #1 run defense. Should create turnovers as this game gets out of hand quickly.
#4. Seahawks vs STL- I don’t know how many times I have to say this. Seattle will play like a super bowl team on Monday Night against a terrible Rams offense.
#5. Jets vs KC- KC has only scored 1 TD in the three games the Palko erra has taken place. That one TD came on a hail mary. Look for the Jets to be on their A game in a must win game @ Home.
#6.Packers vs Oakland- Carson Palmer is prone to turnovers and this Packers defense makes plays left and right, even if Charles Woodson doesn’t play I still like the unit for always a chance for a DTD.
Tier 2- You can only hope things go in your teams favor.
Good Call%= 78%
#7. Broncos vs Chicago- The Broncos defense was terrible besides the INT TD last week vs the Vikings. Chicagos offense is having more problems and really doesn’t have a running game or a passing game. I like Denvers D especially in Points Allowed leagues.
#8. Lions @ Minnesota- If AP doesn’t play than Ponder will have to be throwing the ball a lot all game as the Lions will be scoring at will. That’s good news for your fantasy defense. Ponder may not play either.
#9 .Jaguars vs TB- A nice little sleeper pick if you like the Jags to demolish the helpess Buc’s offense. If they can stop Blount and force Josh Johnson or Freeman to throw than the Jags could be make a big play.
#10. Chargers vs Buffalo- I like SD to blow out the Bills in this one as the Bills travel from across country. Chargers should be making plays on both sides of the ball all game.
#11. Texans @ Cincinnati- Right now I’m doing the rankings as Andy Dalton is going to play. If he doesn’t this a tier 1 defense, but Dalton does not turn the ball over, and if that’s the case it’s hard to trust the Texans this week. They will hold the Bengals in Points Allowed leagues, but not a lot of turnovers.
#12. Bears @ Denver– The Bears defense is great, but Tim Tebow also makes things difficult. I can see the Broncos pounding the ball all game really getting this Bear defense tired towards the end of the game. The Bears D won’t even get breathers because their offense keeps them on the field.
#13. Saints @ Tennessee- Their defense isn’t that great, but if they can get ahead, Matt Hasselbeck is not a good enough QB to pose a threat which could lead to a really nice game for the Saints D.
#14. Dolphins vs Eagles- Vick is back, and that’s enough reason to not play the Dolphins. Vick could have a huge game making this unit nothing more than a reserve spot, I would be cautious/ start a higher defense on this list.
#15. Patriots @ Washington- The Pats defense is so bad, the only reason I’m recommending them as even a considerable option is because the Pats will be forcing Rex Grossman to throw all game. When that happens he usually throws a lot of Turnovers. But then again it’s the Patriots defense..