FANTASY FOOTBALL: TOBY I DON’T THINK WE’RE IN STANFORD ANYMORE (TOBY GERHART BUST)

FANTASY FOOTBALL:

TOBY I DON’T THINK WE’RE IN STANFORD ANYMORE

(TOBY GERHART BUST)

 

By Muntradamus

 

BEAST DOME NATION.

 

Standing at 6 Feet Tall and a soft 230 lbs.  Toby Gerhart finds himself as the “workhorse” RB for the Jaguars.

If you thought the Jaguars were bad last season, now they are not even trying.  Toby Gerhart is nothing more than a backup RB in the NFL.  Since his rookie season in 2010, Toby Gerhart has rushed for 100 Yards only 1 Time.  Adrian Peterson missed plenty of games over that span, and Gerhart continues to disappoint.  Now Toby goes to Jacksonville, which is arguably the worst football team in the NFL.

 

Despite all of that, Experts on FantasyPros are touting Toby as a Top 15 RB?

 

TobyG

 

Gerhart Rankings

 

 

TOBY I DON’T THINK WE’RE IN STANFORD ANYMORE

(TOBY GERHART BUST)

 

BEAST DOME NATION.

 

There is an unspoken rule of Fantasy Football.  The Rule is:

Do not draft a bad player on a bad team.

The Jaguars come into 2014 heading in the wrong direction.  No Justin Blackmon.  No Maurice Jones-Drew.  Chad Henne or Blake Bortles at QB.  Defense is still below average to say the least.  None of this sounds good no matter how you twist the angle.

Not to mention a very tough playoff schedule.  If you are lucky enough to make it to Week 16, there is light at the end of the tunnel.

Playoffschedule

 

 

Are you still not sold on Toby Gerhart being a BUST based off my raw analysis?  Let me give you three major reasons why Toby Gerhart is the quickest way to blow your entire Fantasy Football Draft with a 3rd Round Pick.

 

#1

The Jaguars OFFENSE

Close your eyes. (metaphorically).

1st Down.  Chad Henne hands the ball off to Gerhart.  3 Yard gain.

2nd and 7. Chad Henne throws an incomplete pass.

3rd Down. Chad Henne throws an incomplete pass.

 

Is this how you really want to spend your Sundays?  The Jaguars offense does not have what it takes to drive the ball down the field.  Yet alone convert many 3rd downs.

Chad Henne has little accuracy and is only good for the occasional bomb.  The Jaguars offense will fail nearly every week making this a very hard team to root for.  If you have Gerhart, be prepared to root for the Jaguars offense.  Something I will choose not to experience in 2014.

Bortles has the look to be a good NFL QB, but the 1 year transition of facing defenses that he was facing at UCF compared to the Houston Texans.  Bortles is on the outside looking in.

#2

The Jaguars DEFENSE

Nice addition with Chris Clemons who will prove he is not done.  This defense however relies on one player.  Paul Posluszny.  If you thought the Cowboys defense crumbled when Sean Lee went out last season.  The Jaguars defense could be the worst defense in NFL History if Paul goes down.

Jonathan Cyprien (SS) can be a big player for this unit, but no matter the circumstance.  This defense is not good enough to shutdown teams for very long.  The Jaguars defense will be giving up points this season and can never be considered a good start in the Fantasy Football world.

 

#3

The Jaguars 

Between the Jaguars offense not moving the ball, and the defense giving up points.  It will not take long for the Jagaurs to abandon the run and go into comeback mode.  While Gerhart is a capable PPR RB, his numbers will still leave you dry as there will be games Toby fails to rush for 50 yards.

The real downside to Toby is the fact the Jaguars offense will keep Toby away from all the Redzone TDs.  If Toby can’t get in the endzone, you are asking a lot from him.  Toby is not like LeSean McCoy who can support his numbers without a TD.

The Jaguars this season are a team I would pick to win less than 5 games easily.  The team is clearly in re-build mode, they should have at least brought on a RB that can be the future.  Not a placeholder.

 

 

MUNTRADAMUS PREDICTION

TOBY GERHART – RB – JAX (2014)

990 TOTAL YARDS. 10 TD

MUNTRADAMUS RB RANKING #?

 

 

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12 comments

  • Ben Andre July 24, 2014   Reply →

    I think Funston or whatever yahoo kook… should be out of a job…but not as bad as Matthew Berry…good god that guy is TERRIBLE… Nice analysis Munt.

  • gedas July 24, 2014   Reply →

    even though beeing a Vikings fan and watched every Gerhart game as a proffesional I maybe dissagree with him beeing bad player, rather than mediocre. But with all negative things-yet the final prediction line given to Gerhart here by MUNT makes him 15th RB according last season pts- he would finish almost about 15th Rb last year Le’Veon Bell, and above Zack Stacy

    • Muntradamus July 24, 2014   Reply →

      Bad Player when you consider the other RB talent around the NFL. I rather have Mike James who is going to be waived from TB over Gerhart if I was the GM of Jacksonville.

      New season. Gerhart is not even ranked in my Top 25. Keep in mind that those total yards = recieving yards as well.

      • fiend July 24, 2014   Reply →

        9tds sounds high. i’d say 1000yds/30catches/5td

  • TSmith July 25, 2014   Reply →

    I agree with Munt on this one.

    Personally, I think Gerhart is quite a ways behind Maurice Jones Drew in terms of talent…And look how MJD struggled the past few year in that Jags offense.

    The only way Gerhart is going to be able to carve out any fantasy value is if he’s able to get a ton of volume and get 25 carries every game. The Jags will be so bad that I don’t think that will happen…And I also don’t think Gerhart can stay healthy even if it does happen.

    I never wanted to own MJD…And don’t want to own Gerhart either. I actually think Munts projection of 10 TD’s is being generous.

    I view Gerhart was a #3 RB in 12-14 team leagues and nothing more than that.

    • Muntradamus July 25, 2014   Reply →

      The reason I give Gerhart the generous 10 TDs is because of his time on the field.

      3rd Down RB/Goal Line RB/every play RB/even when they are down by 21 in the 4th Quarter RB.

      Jaguars are going to score at least 22 TDs this year (You can hope) and Gerhart should be involved in about less than half of those.

  • Cnop July 25, 2014   Reply →

    Remember it is an amazing thing when the Yahoos and ESPNs rate these bums nice and high. Let them keep over ranking them let other people keep drafting them. We’ll keep Beasting and winning.

    • Onesidebadass July 25, 2014   Reply →

      Speaking of Yahoo and ESPN I think TRich is a huge steal for his ADP. I mean it’s ridiculous just because he had one bad season on a bad offense which was 0-2 at the time without their stud Josh Gordon to pull the defenses back. Then he was traded to a much higher powered offense and had to try and learn the offense on a whim. We’ll I see TRich being a top 10 if not even a top 5 RB this year based on goal line touches and TD’s alone. Now the Colts schedule is not the greatest but it’s not horrible either. And most importantly his weeks leading into the fantasy playoffs… Week 12 they get the Jags in Indy, week 13 Redskins in Indy and the best of all he will be back in Cleveland to face the team that traded him week 14. I do know the Browns have a very underrated defense but I still wouldn’t want to be the Browns during that game.

      ~J

  • Anonymous July 25, 2014   Reply →

    Munt,

    In Yahoo, Gerhart is going in the 9th round. Even though he is not a good, talented RB, isn’t the opportunity at that round to get a starting RB too great to pass up? Who else is really guaranteed carries that late?

    • Muntradamus July 25, 2014   Reply →

      He does not go in the 9th Round.

      His Current ADP averaged between ESPN/CBS/YAHOO is 53. That is the early 5th Round in a 12 man league. Same Round RG3 is falling in, for now.

  • Anonymous July 30, 2014   Reply →

    You realize that 990 yards and 10 tds would rank 16th among rbs last year, right?

    • Muntradamus July 30, 2014   Reply →

      New Season new RB expectations.

      Stats are also inflated due to assuming he plays all 16 games. An average of around 80 Total Yards per game and less than a TD is average at best. He is a low-end RB#3 who you should still avoid drafting in your league.

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