FANTASY FOOTBALL DRAFT STRATEGY: THE QB PLAN (2013)

FANTASY FOOTBALL DRAFT STRATEGY:

THE QB PLAN (2013)

 

By Muntradamus

 

BEAST DOME NATION.

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TESTIMONIAL

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QB STRATEGY

There are 7/8 QBs that are taken in the first 4 Rounds of Fantasy Football Drafts this season.

Peyton Manning
Aaron Rodgers
Drew Brees

Cam Newton
Matt Ryan
Matt Stafford
Tomy Brady

Andrew Luck is the *Variable #8* (He goes Round 4/5)  Let that owner have him in the very unexciting West Coast Offense.  He will be very similar to the QB he was at Stanford.  That will not translate to HUGE Fantasy Numbers.

QBS LEFT THAT YOU CAN COUNT ON

So now there are 4 Teams that need QBs.

1. Colin Kaepernick – He’s going to be dangerous this season.  Could finish with Cam Newton.

2. Russell Wilson – The loss of Percy Harvin hurts what could of been.

3. RGIII – Looking good, still not a believer in his passing numbers.  Can still win you a week by himself.

4. Eli Manning – Could easily throw for as many yards as the QBs like Ryan/Brady/Stafford.
*Does blow big games consistently*

5. Josh Freeman – Goes in the 19th Round according to ADP.  Go ahead and snag him in the 12-15th as your backup.

6. Tony Romo – Maybe this will be the season.  Either way, you can grab him as the #13 QB off the board.  Once it is only him and Eli Manning left, as soon as Eli is taken, go after Romo.

You already know you can get Josh Freeman Late.  If you are selecting a QB from this list. JOSH FREEMAN IS MUST-OWN.

If you are one of those 4 Teams that needs one of these QBs.  The strategy is simple.

1.  Make sure there are no more quality RBs on the board.  In the Mock Draft Above, there are no more RBs to choose from, Bradshaw was the last one.

Even with Mike Wallace/Desean Jackson/Miles Austin/Andre Johnson/Reggie Wayne still left at WR.

Go ahead and take a Gamble on Colin Kapernick being the Man.  He can jump to Tier 2.

Now there are 3 Teams that need a QB

2.  Once Colin is off the board.  I would take the best players in the draft.  Star by taking those WRs off the board

Mike Wallace/Desean Jackson/Miles Austin/Andre Johnson/Reggie Wayne.

Then once someone takes Russell Wilson.

It is time to jump on the RGIII ship.  RGIII can single handily win you weeks.

Now there is only 1 Teams that need a QB

3.  So now Kaepernick/Wilson/RGIII are gone.  The WRs on that list above are gone.  Only 1 More Teams need a QB, Eli Manning and Tony Romo are left.

The difference in my simulated scoring between the two is 15 Points.

If you are looking at WRs in the Anquan Boldin/Greg Jennings/Torrey Smith/Antonio Brown Range.

You can keep building depth until someone takes Eli Manning.  But once Eli is gone, it is time to stop playing Chicken.

Grab Tony Romo Stands with your next pick.

Do not wait too Long.  Round 9 is the latest you should grab your QB.  By then, you should have.

4 RBs/3 WRs/1 TE

As long as nobody in your draft room knows about BEASTDOME.com, you will be able to get Josh Freeman a few rounds later and all is saved.

OTHER TOP BACKUP QBS TO SHUFFLE WITH

Jay Cutler and Michael Vick can sneak into Tier 3 above.  The other QBs, I would not draft unless I was going after a Bye Week Replacement.  Josh Freeman should be drafted above all the Players on this list.  The number next to the player signifies their current Ranking at the QB position.

15. MICHAEL VICK

16. JAY CUTLER

17. RYAN TANNEHILL

18. PHILIP RIVERS

19. BEN ROETHLISBERGER

20. ANDY DALTON

21. CARSON PALMER

22. JOE FLACCO

23. MATT SCHAUB

BYE WEEK SUPERSTARS

These are the QBs to target if you have any of the following Starting QBs.  If you do not have any of these players in a 12 Team League, your backup QB has to be Josh Freeman.  Freeman will be outscoring Eli/Romo multiple times this season.  He will outscore Kapernick/Wilson/RGIII a few times as well.

Peyton Manning/Matt Stafford/Colin Kaepernick is your QB.  (Bye Week 9)

Jay Cutler would be the most ideal Bye-Week Replacement.  Chicago @ GB (Week 9)

Philip Rivers is the player you can draft late. San Diego @ Washington (Week 9)

Aaron Rodgers/Cam Newton is your QB. (Bye Week 4)

Ryan Tannehill is the player you can grab at the end of your draft.  Miami @ New Orleans (Week 4)

Jay Cutler is the backup to spend a high pick on. Chicago @ Det (Week 4)

Joe Flacco is a good option to grab late. Baltimore @ Buf (Week 4)

Drew Brees is your QB. (Bye Week 7)

Andy Dalton has a juicy matchup in a dome. Cincy @ Detroit (Week 7)

Philip Rivers can throw us back to 2009. San Diego @ Jacksonville (Week 7)

Brandon Weeden you do not even have to draft as the Browns play from Behind.  Cleveland @ GB (Week 7)

Matt Ryan is your QB. (Bye Week 6)

Joe Flacco should get his passing yards against a soft Packers defense. Baltimore @ GB (Week 6)

Brandon Weeden can be snagged at the end of your draft. Cleveland vs. Detroit (Week 6)

Tom Brady is your QB. (Bye Week 10)

Assuming he still has the job.  Michael Vick has a vintage matchup against the Packers.  PHI @ GB (Week 10)

Russell Wilson is your QB. (Bye Week 12)

Matt Schaub takes on the Jaguars.  A team he always tears apart.  Houston vs. Jacksonville (Week 12)

RGIII is your QB. (Bye Week 5)

Sam Bradford will not be a playable option many times, but this is one.  STL vs. Jacksonville (Week 5)

Andrew Luck is your QB. (Bye Week 8)

Christian Ponder is Home on Sunday Night Football with a good match up.  Minnesota vs. GB (Week 8)
*Make sure you follow QB/K on that one to win the week*

MOCK DRAFT OF THE DAY

*Presented By FantasyPros*

12 Team League – Standard

#2 Overall Pick

MockSaturday

 

 

 

Muntradamus is a Fantasy Sports Expert who specializes in Fantasy Football/Baseball/Basketball. He is currently in his second season as a Pro on FantasyPros coming off of an impressive Rookie Campaign where he landed the #8 Overall In-Season Fantasy Football Rankings Expert.  Which also included #1 WR of all Expert Sites.  He is also one of two people to qualify for all DRAFTSTREET CHAMPIONSHIPS (MLB/NFL/NBA) in 2012. Most Historically, Muntradamus was the #1 Fantasy Football Expert of IDP & Overall Rankings in One Week, first and only time in Fantasy Sports History.

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5 comments

  • swagg August 10, 2013   Reply →

    cool article muntz! so in a league where Tds are 6pts for Qbs, Rbs, and Wrs you would take an elite Qb over the gronk strategy? also when would u target a tight end if that’s the case?

  • Anonymous August 11, 2013   Reply →

    How comfortable do you feel drafting DMC as rb 2? Would hate to see him go down again…

    • yankeefan1024 August 11, 2013   Reply →

      McFadden is ranked just outside the top 10 RB’s for Munt, so I’d assume he’s an advocate of it :)

      It really depends on how you value DMC. If you view him as having immense talent when healthy, getting him in the 4th or 5th round could be worth the investment. Remember that you value a player by adding up his projected fantasy points per game * the number of projected games he will play … PLUS … the projected number of points by a replacement level player at that position * number of games played by replacement level player. This is because when DMC goes down with an injury, you don’t just play nobody, you will have at worst a replacement level player to fill in.

      Let’s assume you project McFadden to play just 11 games this year, and you project him to get 10.5 points per game… That is 115.5 points. But you don’t rank him based on that. Let’s add the replacement value. Assume a replacement level RB gets 7 points per game. They are now projected to play 5 games for you. That is an additional 35 points. So your projection for DMC should read 150.5 points, or 9.40 points per game over the course of the season.

      Hope this helps :)

  • swagg August 11, 2013   Reply →

    isn’t mcfadden ranked top 10 in muntz’s rankings?

    • Muntradamus August 13, 2013   Reply →

      McFadden is in Top 10. But the Raiders defense looked worst than I thought, he will be moving down the Rankings in the next update.

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