Fantasy Baseball Strategy Special: Undervalued/Under Appreciated (2013)

Fantasy Baseball Strategy Special:

Undervalued/Under Appreciated (2013)

By Muntradamus

 

BEAST DOME NATION.

I was contemplating throwing out my Draft Day Sleeper/Busts for the 2013 season.  But I wanted to do another round of editing on the Rankings after I analyze all of the Spring Training numbers, as well as wait for all the injuries and Free Agent Signings to be complete.

So I am giving you the second best thing, which today is the  under valued players at all of the positions.  I will list 3 Per Position to help you find the extra Value you need come Draft Day.

Don’t forget to check out the latest 1st Round Mock Draft Article, which also Features the latest Mock Draft Tool.

As well as..

BEAST DOME FANTASY BASEBALL DRAFT GUIDE VOL. II

 

UNDERVALUED/UNDER APPRECIATED

*E.C.R.= Expert Consensus Ranking (Each Position).  To see all My Current Rankings Check the Draft Guide above.

C

WILIN ROSARIO – COL (E.C.R #7)

Off the top of your head, how many catchers can you list that will hit 30 HRs?  If you were able to list more than five outside of Rosario, then you are kidding yourself.  Catcher is one of the hardest positions to find pure power hitters.  Especially power hitters that could hit 35+ HRs and hit around .270.  Playing in Coloardo on a star studded lineup is just one of the few perks Wilin Rosario has this season.  He should easily be the #2 Hitting catcher behind Buster Posey.

J.P. ARENCIBIA – TOR (E.C.R #18)

J.P. Arencibia has mammoth power, and a batting average that should be .250 any season now.  Last year his batting average fell as low as .062, yet he still managed to hit .233 with 18 HRs despite missing two months of the season, just when he was really finding his power stick.  The Jays offense is one of the best in American League, and J.P. is an excellent value catcher who could have the same amount of HRs/RBIs as all of the Top 10 Catchers this year.

JARROD SALTALAMACCHIA – BOS (E.C.R. #19)

Salty was always touted as one of the best young hitting catchers in the game with the Braves.  He is now older, more experienced, and coming off of his best season in the majors where he was able to club 25 HRs.  The batting average is around .250, but there is no reason for him not to get better now that he is finally comfortable with the starting job all to himself.  Salty is a great steal in any draft as he could easily approach 30 HRs in 2012.

1B

DAVID ORTIZ – BOS (E.C.R. #19)

Big Papi is not 100% coming into the season, which could easily have his E.C.R. drop even lower.  Especially with the news he will not be ready for opening day.  If David Ortiz falls to me in any draft outside of the Top 10 1B options, then what is the point of taking Joey Votto in round #1?  David Ortiz could miss the first month of the season, and still hit 15 more Home Runs than Votto.  Easily the most intimidating batter in baseball, and still a BEAST.  David Ortiz is a pure steal.

GARRETT JONES – PIT (E.C.R. #41)

You could draft an entire team and fill out every position with depth.  Then in the last round, grab a 1B option who has 30 HR/100 RBI potential and playing on a 1 year contract.  I don’t know about you, but I see this season being the one season where you really don’t have to think about a 1B option.  Do not fear Garrett Jones as a weakness in your lineup, he could rake with the best of them when he gets hot.

KEVIN YOUKILIS – NYY (E.C.R. #40)

Everyone seems to forget that Youkilis would have been on a pace to hit around 30 Home Runs if he played the way he did for the White Sox in 2012.  You know Youkilis would love nothing more than to win a World Series for the New York Yankees after being something close to a legend for the Red Sox who turned their back on him.  Youk still has a bat, he still has a dominant lineup surrounding him, and as far as we are concerned.  He is still a good hitter because he left off 2012 slugging.

2B

CHASE UTLEY – PHI (E.C.R. #10)

If you’re trying to tell me that Chase Utley is the 10th best 2B option.  I will ask you to play in my fantasy baseball league.

Chase is still a great hitter who comes into 2013 completely healthy.  He could easily hit 25+ HRs in that small Citizens Ball Park, and is still surrounded by greats in Jimmy Rollins and Ryan Howard.  Chase also has double digit steal potential to go along with possibly 100 RBIs and a good batting average.  Chase has MVP potential, and I would not wait  until the 10th 2B option to grab him.

KYLE SEAGER – SEA (E.C.R. #17)

20 HR/86 RBI/13 SB.  Those numbers are very solid no matter what position you play in the infield.  As a 2B option, those numbers are what you would want Chase Utley to get, minus the .250 batting average that Seager offers.  Still, as the #17 2B option, I can easily skip my entire draft and just wait until the end to pick up a stud who could get better numbers than Rickie Weeks and Aaron Hill.  Thank you, and check please.  Only helps that the Marines moved the fences in for 2013.

KELLY JOHNSON – TB (E.C.R. #26)

Last season was the first healthy season since 2008 where Kelly Johnson did not hit more than 20 HRs.  What he did do though, was hit 16 HRs and rack up a career high 14 SBs.  I don’t know about you, but those numbers may fall just short of the #4 E.C.R 2B option Brandon Phillips who will probably fail to reach the 20/20 club once again at the age of 31.  Kelly Johnson is now playing for Tampa, a rival to the Blue Jays which should encourage Kelly to have a big season.  If I can grab a guy this good, this late.  No need to go after anyone else.

3B

MARK TRUMBO – LAA (E.C.R #14)

If I told you, that a 40 HR hitter at the 3B position who will hit above .270, and also qualifies at other positions around the diamond will be around after the Top 13 3B options.  You would think I am literally crazy.  Trumbo is going way too late in all drafts as he could have a record amount of RBI’s batting behind Albert Pujols/Josh Hamilton.  With runners on base Trumbo is dangerous, and danger is everything you want from a steal pick this far down.

TODD FRAZIER – CIN (E.C.R. #18)

Frazier as a rookie was doing pretty well the 1st half of the season.  But then Joey Votto went down, and the doors opened wide for Frazier to show off his skills and show us an easy 30 HR potential player.  With Votto healthy, Frazier will now play 3B everyday, his natural position.  For a player that could hit above .280 and drive in 30 HRs go after the Top 15 3B options.  Then why draft Aramis Ramirez?

TREVOR PLOUFFE – MIN (E.C.R. #22)

Plouffe the Magic Dragon was hitting Home runs at a Barry Bonds Rate.  He manged 24 HRs in 112 games, which is amazing.  Considering he has confidence coming into 2013, why is there any reason to doubt that he could hit less than 30+ HRs in 2013 with 162 games.  The batting average may not be pretty at .230, but the price you’re paying for all that power is completely worth it.  Especially when he gets hot.

SS

ALEXEI RAMIREZ – CWS (E.C.R. #17)

Alexei has never had anything less than 68 RBI’s in his 5 Year Career.  That is already a huge boost.  He has shown us that he can consistently hit around 13-17 HRs.  He also shown us that he can steal 13-20 SBs.  He has already shown us that he can consistently hit around the .270 Range.  These are all the things you want from a SS, and if you can wait late to get these numbers.  Then why overpay in the form of Martin Prado who could go a handful of rounds earlier.

JHONNY PERALTA – DET (E.C.R. #25)

Last season was a bad one for Jhonny who is usually a threat for 25 HRs when he is on his A Game.  Last year he only hit 13 to go along with a .239 Batting Average.  Still the Tigers believed in Peralta and let him hit through all his slumps.  This season he will have more RBI opportunities with Victor Martinez healthy, and Torii Hunter on board.  The real reason you should believe in Peralta this year is, he hit 2 HRs in Game 4 of the ALCS to advance the Tigers into the World Series.  Where he hit a HR in Game #1.  That is the David Freese effect.

TYLER GREENE – HOU (E.C.R. #32)

The Astro’s are re-building.  One of the newest members is SS Tyler Greene who easily has 10 HR/10 SB potential as long as he stays healthy.  The SS position is a thin one, and if you can wait until the very end of your draft to get this type of depth, you are set for the long run.  Greene had 7 HRs in 126 ABs last season.  If you multiple that by 4, you have yourself the steal of the draft.  He also has shown double digit steal potential in the same amount of appearances.

OF

JACOBY ELLSBURY – BOS (E.C.R. #15)

Jacoby hit 32 HRs and stole 39 Bases, while hitting for a .321 average and knocking in over 100 RBIs back in 2011.  2012 he was injured and never got the chance to find any rhythm as he was out from Mid-April, to Mid-July.  Now you can get this talent in the 2nd, possibly 3rd, possibly 4th Round!! There is no reason to think he will not bounce back in 2013, making him the best steal of amazing impact numbers in your draft.

CARLOS GOMEZ – MIL (E.C.R. #36)

What makes B.J. Upton one of the most popular Fantasy Baseball Players is his 20+ HR/40 SB potential.  You could wait at least 6 Rounds later, and get Carlos Gomez.  A player that has always had this talent built inside of him, and in 2012 it came roaring out at the tune of 19 HR/37 SB in 137 Games.  If you add another 20 Games to that total, those numbers would make him one of the  most dangerous players in Fantasy Baseball today.  Keep the secret on the down low, because this guy is ready to come out with a message.

JOSH REDDICK – OAK (E.C.R. #49)

Did I take crazy Pills in 2012, or was Josh Reddick the best no name player to have a HUGE season where he hit 32 HRs and also picked up 11 SBs?  No those are not crazy pills, but other Experts seem to be taking them at this moment as there is no reason a player with those numbers should be taken around the #50 OF option.  Yes his batting average was low at .242, but he did hit .280 the year before.  Something tells me .265 would be perfectly fine with that power and speed to make him a Top 25 OF option at the very least.  Steal alert right here.

SP

R.A. DICKEY – TOR (E.C.R. #16)

18 INN/2 Hits/0 ER/25 Ks.  Those are Dickey’s two games against the Baltimore Orioles and the Tampa Bay Rays in Interleague play 2012.  Now R.A. will not only face those teams again who had no idea how to hit his knuckle ball.  But he will face an entire different league of hitters that see the Dickey Knuckle ball for the very first time.  R.A. gave players like Bryce Harper who is one of the best most aggressive left handed hitters a 3/14 experience in 2012.  It is not going to be easy for any hitter to grasp his pitch, and he could very quietly run away with the CY Young.

LANCE LYNN – STL (E.C.R. #41)

In Lynn’s first 10 Starts in 2012, he was 8-1 with a 2.54 ERA.  Lance did fall from those numbers as he finished at 18-7 with a 3.78 ERA, but this was also his first year being a starter in the majors.  Lynn has great Strikeout potential as well as the ability to eat INN’s and prove great pitching to a great offense that will give him plenty of run support.  No reason Lynn cannot repeat those amazing numbers in 2013, and no reason for him to have an ECR outside of the Top 40.

MIKE FIERS – MIL (E.C.R. #69)

127 INN/135 Ks.  Yes the wheels started to fall off for Fiers at the end of the year who hit a rookie wall, but he still did manage 18 Ks in 10 INN in his last two starts which helped soften the blow.  His final ERA was 3.74 which is amazing considering he had a 7.09 ERA in September.  Take your chances on Fiers who should be dynamite in all leagues heading towards the stretch run.

CHRIS TILLMAN – BAL (E.C.R. #94)

In Chris Tillman’s 12 starts, only one of them was poor.  In the month of September with Fantasy Baseball Playoffs on the line, he only allowed 4 ER total in his last 4 Starts, which included a 8 INN shutout with the Win in his season finale.  So how does a pitcher who throws 7 INN/2 ER/5 K performances go around #100?  No idea, especially considering his record was 9-3 with a 2.93 ERA.  Huge steal.

BRANDON MCCARTHY – ARI (E.C.R. #75)

Pitchers that go from the AL to the NL always do better.  Not always, but you can definitely lean on that statistic working out more often than not.  Latest example was Gio Gonzalez who took his Fantasy game to the next level joining the Nationals.  Brandon McCarthy is not a Strikeout pitcher by any means, but his ERA could easily be under 3.00 pitching in the NL West, easily.  Brandon was a underdog favorite for CY Young 2012, injuries ruined that.  Now he gets a fresh start in Arizona, a team where he could really thrive.  Huge sleeper written all over him.

RP

JOEL HANRAHAN – BOS (E.C.R. #16)

Alfredo Aceves saved 25 Games with a 5.36 ERA filling in for the injured Andrew Bailey in 2012.  Before Andrew Bailey was Jonathan Papelbon, who was and is still a Top 3 Closer in Fantasy Baseball.  Boston made Papelbon the pitcher he is today.  Now the Red Sox got one of the most reliable Closer’s in Baseball with Joel Hanrahan.  Yet Experts think he is not going to be a Top 15 Option?  It’s hard to see Joel not getting 40+ Saves closing for one of the most intense teams in baseball.  When you close for Boston, you’re automatic Top 10.

JONATHAN BROXTON – CIN (E.C.R. #24)

People are having a hard time accepting that Jonthan Broxton just had a bad season with the Dodgers in 2011 which led to his departure and a fresh start with the Royals.  From there he looked like his old, 40+ Saves self.  From there he was traded to the Reds because the Royals could not afford to pay him, and because Greg Holland is the real deal.

The Reds have so much confidence in Broxton that they paid him top dollar, and made ex-closer Aroldis Chapman into a starter.  So now closing for one of the most competitive teams in the NL Central, Broxton finds himself outside of the Top 20 according To experts.  I disagree.

JOSE VALVERDE – FA (E.C.R. #58)

Yes, Jose has no job as of now.  But a closer who has had 3 seasons of 40+ Saves, as well as coming off of a 35 Save season despite a  3.78 ERA.   Jose will close again. Not only will he close again in 2013, but he will likely get 30+ Saves where ever he ends up.  It is possible he waits until a good team needs his services during the season, regardless he should not be the #58 Ranked player at the RP position.  Once he signs as a closer somewhere, he will become Must-Add.  Beat the trend.

 

Muntradamus is a Fantasy Sports Expert who specializes in Fantasy Football/Baseball/Basketball. He is currently in his second season as a Pro on FantasyPros coming off of an impressive Rookie Campaign where he landed the #10 Overall In-Season Fantasy Football Rankings Expert.  Which also included #1 WR of all Expert Sites.  He is also one of two people to qualify for all DRAFTSTREET CHAMPIONSHIPS in 2012. Most Historically, Muntradamus was the #1 Fantasy Football Expert of IDP & Overall Rankings in One Week, first time in Fantasy Sports History.

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3 comments

  • Go Warriors March 17, 2013   Reply →

    Awesome article, really helpful! I am certainly targeting a lot of these players in my drafts. Reminds me of the basketball article where you mentioned, for example, Greivis Vasquez, and now his market value is up in the clouds.

    This year I am focusing on drafting a solid core Middle Infield and I was hoping you could do a quick player comparison. More than once I have been faced with the choice of Kinsler or Pedroia. I have read the player rankings but was hoping you could talk a little more about these two in terms of both expected performance and possible risk. Do you expect Kinsler to be vastly superior or pretty close to Pedroia? Thanks Munt !!

    • Muntradamus March 18, 2013   Reply →

      Glad the Article helps GW ;) And Glad someone keeps track of all my good calls as well.

      The Core Middle Infield Strategy is a Great one this season as there is plenty of talents on the corner where you can get Chris Davis outside of the Top 20. Who I think is a 40 HR player in 2013 at the young breakout age of 25.

      Between Ian Kinsler and Dustin Pedroia the choice is simple.

      The choice is Ian Kinsler.

      Yes Pedroia may get you that better batting average above .300, as well as the 80+ RBIs and 100 Run Potential. But the difference between Kinsler and Pedroia is that Ian Kinsler is a 30 HR/30 SB type of player, and Pedroia is a 20 HR/20 SB type of player. Kinsler will likely get above 70 RBIs, so the difference is not huge there. But the main difference is, Ian Kinsler will likely lead the MLB in runs batting leadoff for the Rangers. Go with Ian and don’t hesitate or think Twice on what you could have had with the Laser Show. Being in Boston helps his name, as Kinsler in a Red Sox uniform would be 1st Round Material.

  • RevClyburn March 20, 2013   Reply →

    22 HOURS AGO · REPLY
    RevClyburn said…
    Hey Munstras, Nation

    this is one of my teams, have 6.

    lucroy, craig, zobrist, longoria, asdrubal. stanton, j-upton, plouffe, r weeks, aramis, everth, m. young,

    lincecum, fiers, romo, betancourt, vogelsong,
    perez, axford, lohse, Samardzija, storen,
    neimann

    What do you think of it, what moves, additions, drops should I make? I can get several players from your top 300 list, some in the top 75, make a move? Who should I drop, I see Samardjiza as one player to drop. Keep any of the reliefs pitchers or let go, thinking of picking up Jansen.

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